(Adds forecast, regional details)
By Andrea Hopkins
TORONTO, June 15 (Reuters) - Sales of existing Canadian
homes fell 2.8 percent in May from a record high in April as
inventories fell to all-time lows in key regions, a report from
the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed on Wednesday.
The industry group said its Canadian home price index jumped
12.5 percent in May from a year earlier, while actual sales, not
seasonally adjusted, rose 9.6 percent from May 2015.
"Many of the housing markets in British Columbia and Ontario
that led the monthly decline in national sales are also places
where months of inventory have fallen to all-time lows," said
Gregory Klump, CREA's chief economist.
"This suggests a lack of supply may be starting to rein in
sales amid a continuation of strong housing demand."
The national sales to new listings ratio edged up to 64.8
percent in May 2016, the tightest reading since October 2009 and
firmly into seller's market territory.
There were 4.7 months of inventory on a national basis at
the end of May 2016, unchanged from April and matching the
lowest level in more than six years.
The report included a quarterly forecast predicting national
sales activity and prices would level off as 2016 ends and
plateau in 2017, completing the long housing boom that some
observers fear will crash.
The Bank of Canada warned last week that the rapid pace of
price increases in Toronto and Vancouver is unlikely to
continue, while the potential for a downturn is growing.
Some data have shown a sales slowdown has already begun in
the two hottest cities.
Sales activity should begin to shift from Ontario and
British Columbia as supply shortages drive up prices and
constrain deals, dampening national sales in the second half of
2016, CREA said.
Sales in the three provinces most dependent on the energy
industry - Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador -
are expected to struggle to regain traction this year, resulting
in "continuing softness for home prices," CREA said.
Nationally, sales are forecast to rise 6.1 percent to
536,400 in 2016, while the average price was expected to
increase 10.8 percent to C$490,700 ($381,037.43) in 2016, the
forecast showed.
Sales activity is expected to inch up 0.2 percent to 537,500
units in 2017, while the average price is seen rising 0.1
percent to C$491,100 next year.
($1 = 1.2878 Canadian dollars)
(Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Jeffrey Benkoe)