Today the Bank of Canada lowered its overnight lending rate for the second time this year, bringing the rate down by 25 basis points to 4.5%. Many economists anticipated the rate drop because Canada’s inflation rate cooled to 2.7% in June and is expected to keep decreasing.
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Over just two months, the overnight lending rate has dropped by a total of 50 basis points. However, the first interest rate drop in June didn’t bring a huge boost in activity to the housing market. Will this extra 25 basis points be enough to get buyers off the sidelines?
Buyers May Still Need More Rate Cuts To Offset High Home Prices
Following the first Bank of Canada interest rate drop in early June, home sales did not recover the way many expected them to. National, not seasonally-adjusted home sales decreased by 10.9% from May to June, with Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto home sales down by over 10%.
And in response to a tepid spring market, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) revised its annual housing market forecast, now expecting home sales to grow by 6.2% instead of the 10.5% predicted back in April. Fewer sales are leading to a build-up in inventory, with the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) reporting active listings increased year-over-year by 67.4% in June.
One reason homebuyers might be reluctant to return to the real estate market is that their homebuying decisions are influenced by more than just interest rates. In a recent Zoocasa survey, 42.3% of respondents cited rising home prices as their primary concern regarding home buying in the current market, followed by interest rates (25.6%) and economic uncertainty (14.9%).
Despite softening interest from buyers, home prices have held steady or risen in the majority of markets this year. Benchmark single-family home prices increased by more than 6% since January in several major markets, including Calgary, London and St. Thomas, Quebec CMA, and Winnipeg.
With so many buyers concerned by high home prices, it’s unclear if only two rate cuts are enough to persuade buyers back into the market. In the same Zoocasa survey, the majority of respondents said they were waiting for significant rate cuts before entering the real estate market this year.
How Many Rate Cuts Can We Expect This Year?
While predicting the exact number of rate cuts is a difficult task, as long as inflation continues to trend down, homebuyers can likely expect at least one or two more rate cuts in 2024. According to a recent Reuters poll, all five big Canadian banks predict there will be a total of four rate cuts this year, meaning after today’s announcement there could be two more.
Earlier this month, the US Consumer Price Index revealed that inflation slowed to 3% in June, heightening expectations that further rate cuts may be on the horizon in Canada. “Inflation easing in the US has also opened the door for American rate cuts as early as September. This provides the Bank of Canada further assurance that it can continue to cut rates without risks to our currency, or further sparking inflation,” says Penelope Graham, mortgage expert at Ratehub.ca.
What’s Happening with Mortgage Rates
Since the beginning of this year, most 5-year fixed mortgage rates have been trending lower. Most recently, some 5-year fixed rates have dropped as low as 4.64%. This could be an opportune moment for rate shoppers to lock in a pre-approved rate, securing these low rates for 120 days and potentially saving thousands over the life of their mortgage.
However, Graham advises caution when choosing the best mortgage rate type for your needs. “As the mortgage market fluctuates, choosing the best rate type for your needs can be confusing. While it may be tempting to get a variable mortgage rate when cuts seem likely, it’s important to take your personal risk tolerance and financial situation into account. If we’ve learned anything from the Bank of Canada in the last few years, it’s that nothing is certain when it comes to rate direction,” concludes Graham.