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FOREX-Yen back in favour as China data hurts appetite for risk

Published 2016-03-08, 10:18 p/m
© Reuters.  FOREX-Yen back in favour as China data hurts appetite for risk
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* Demand for safe-haven yen rises as China jitters pervade
* BOC, RBNZ and ECB policy reviews loom
* AUD cushioned by iron ore rally, outperforms CAD, NZD

(Updates prices, adds details and quotes)
By Ian Chua and Shinichi Saoshiro
SYDNEY/TOKYO, March 9 (Reuters) - The yen was broadly firmer
early on Wednesday as demand for the safe-haven currency picked
up after disappointing Chinese trade data took the wind out of a
global rally rooted in stronger risk appetites.
The dollar last stood little changed at 112.585 yen JPY= ,
having slid 0.7 percent overnight, while the euro was down 0.4
percent at 123.54 yen EURJPY=R , well off Friday's high of
125.585.
The Australian dollar dipped under 84.00 yen AUDJPY=R ,
pulling further from a one-month high of 85.00 set on Monday.
European and U.S. stocks fell overnight while many
commodities came under pressure after China's exports tumbled by
the most in over six years last month.
Tokyo's Nikkei followed suit on Wednesday, shedding 1.6
percent and sustaining demand for the yen.
The soft China data highlighted risks facing the global
economy, bolstering expectations for dovish outcomes at central
bank policy reviews in Europe and New Zealand on Thursday.
The European Central Bank is considered almost certain to
ease, which in theory would be negative for the euro, but no one
quite dared to position for bold action given the ECB has
disappointed before.
"The focal point is how long the market will attempt to
price in the risk of the ECB meeting ending in disappointment.
The euro could rise towards the $1.11 handle if attempts to
pre-empt such risk continue," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief FX
strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.
The common currency EUR= was down 0.3 percent at $1.0976.
It slumped to a one-month low of $1.0825 last week but has
pulled back since then.
Also on the defensive, the New Zealand dollar traded at
$0.6744 NZD=D4 , retreating further from Friday's peak of
$0.6820.
While markets only imply a small chance of a rate cut by the
Reserve Bank of New Zealand, investors suspect it is only time
before the central bank delivers another cut to the 2.5 percent
cash rate.
"The RBNZ did signal a bias to ease in January and the risk
is that it decides to move earlier to prevent further
strengthening in the exchange rate," analysts at BNP Paribas (PA:BNPP)
wrote in a note to clients.
In contrast, the Bank of Canada is expected to keep rates on
hold as it waits to gauge what impact the government's
anticipated spending measures might have on the economy.
But a retreat in oil prices took a toll on the Canadian
dollar, which slid to C$1.3440 per USD CAD=D4 , from a 3-1/2
month peak of C$1.3262 set on Monday.
The Canadian dollar will look to the Bank of Canada's policy
decision due later in the session for incentive.
While the BOC is expected to stand pat on monetary policy
and refrain from cutting rates further, any show of confidence
towards the local economy - which has experienced expansion with
oil prices having risen since the last meeting - is expected to
bode well for the loonie.
The Australian dollar fared better among its commodity peers
thanks to further gains in iron ore, Australia's single biggest
export earner. It stood at $0.7418 AUD=D4 , still within reach
of an eight-month high of $0.7486.

(Editing by Richard Pullin and Richard Borsuk)

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