Investing.com -- Former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by a slim margin in the presidential race, according to the latest Fox News national survey, with 50% support compared to Harris' 48%. This marks a reversal from last month, when Harris had a slight edge over Trump.
However, Harris holds a 6-point advantage among voters in seven key battleground states.
Among voters in closely contested counties — where the 2020 margin between Biden and Trump was less than 10 points — the two candidates are tied at 49%.
Trump’s lead in the overall poll comes largely from his strong showing in counties he won by over 10 points in 2020, where he leads 64% to 35%. Harris, meanwhile, holds a smaller margin in counties Biden carried by more than 10 points, leading 58% to 39%.
This is Trump’s best performance since Harris became the nominee in August. His gains come primarily from increased support among White voters, who now back him by a 10-point margin, up from 4 points last month and 6 points in August. Trump is also hitting record highs among voters aged 65 and older, with 49% support, and among college-educated voters, at 48%.
On the other hand, Harris is seeing her lowest levels of support since becoming the nominee among several key groups. Her backing among Black voters has fallen to 67%, while support from college graduates sits at 49%, voters aged 65 and older at 47%, and White voters with college degrees at 46%.
Nonetheless, the race remains tight. Trump was up by 1 point in August, Harris led by 2 points in September, and now Trump has a 2-point lead. This increases the possibility that a Democrat could win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote — something that occurred with GOP candidates in 2000 and 2016.
Trump's narrow 2-point lead is within the poll’s margin of error, with results unchanged among the broader group of registered voters. Last month, Harris led by 2 points (50%-48%) among both likely and registered voters.
"Overall, the movement toward Trump is subtle but potentially consequential, especially if he is making gains among college-educated voters," said Chris Anderson, a Democratic pollster who conducts Fox News surveys with Republican pollster Daron Shaw.
"However, the race has been well within the margin of error for three months and the outcome will likely hinge on which side is more effective at getting their voters to the polls as opposed to persuasion."
The gender gap remains stark at 20 points, with men favoring Trump and women supporting Harris.
Harris continues to hold a solid double-digit lead over Trump among independent voters, helping to keep the race competitive. Both candidates enjoy strong support from over 90% of their respective party bases.
Meanwhile, more voters nationally identify as Republicans than Democrats, giving Trump a slight edge in the overall contest.