According to Evercore ISI analysts, preliminary data from IDC shows a positive trend in the PC market with unit shipment growth accelerating in the second quarter (Jun-qtr) of 2024 to +3.0% year-over-year (y/y).
This follows a return to growth in the first quarter (+1.9% y/y). Analysts highlight two key drivers for this growth: "commercial refreshes and initial tailwinds from AI PCs."
Analysts say that while both commercial PC refreshes and the emergence of AI PCs contributed equally to the growth, it's important to recognize the focus on the commercial sector for AI adoption, at least for the near future.
"AI PC interest from OEMs and chip vendors have been primarily focused on the commercial markets, rather than the consumer market," analysts state. This focus is likely due to the anticipated near-term benefits being driven by commercial applications.
However, the landscape might shift later this year. Analysts point out, "IDC expects anticipated Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) product launches later this year to drive broader consumer adoption, in addition to consumer-focused product launches from QCOM, INTC, and AMD (NASDAQ:AMD)."
Apple (AAPL) appears to be capitalizing on this trend, emerging as the top share gainer among the top five vendors, according to the analysis of the IDC data. "Apple and Acer saw the greatest y/y share gains, +130bps and +60bps, respectively," they report. Conversely, HP and Dell saw share declines.
Overall, the IDC data paints a positive picture for the PC market, supporting the idea of a PC upcycle in 2024 and 2025 according to analysts. They recommend paying attention to companies with significant PC market exposure.