BofA estimates Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) Prime Day could generate $12 billion in gross merchandise value (GMV), analysts revealed Monday.
Prime Day is set to take place between the 11th and 12th of July, with customers gaining access to "more deals than any past Prime Day," with new deals dropping every 30 minutes during select periods.
The analysts said that with Prime Day arriving at a time when many customers are bargain hunting due to elevated inflation and economic concerns impacting consumer spending, they "expect strong demand for deals as CEO Jassy's comments on CNBC last week suggested that customers are trading down more frequently than in past quarters."
"In our Prime Day model, we estimate 10% Y/Y 1P Prime Day sales growth and 14% 3P sales growth, with 1P GMV at $6.8bn and 3P GMV at $5.2bn," wrote the analysts. "Our 12% Y/Y Prime Day GMV growth estimate translates to $11.95bn in total GMV for Prime Day (and is above our 10% GMV growth rate for 3Q). Based on our projection for $162bn in 3Q'23e Amazon GMV, we estimate Prime Day could represent 7.4% of GMV for the quarter (up slightly from 7.2% last year)."
The analysts also noted that it’s likely Prime Day has a small negative impact on daily sales surrounding the event, while discounts and fast delivery speeds should drive Amazon share gains.