(The following statement was released by the rating agency)
NEW YORK, May 18 (Fitch) (This is a correction of a release published Aug. 3,
2015. It includes Fitch's 'Global Structured Finance Rating Criteria' under
Applicable Criteria, which was omitted from the original release.)
Fitch Ratings has affirmed the 'AAA' rating with a Stable Outlook on the
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce's (CIBC; 'AA-'/'F1+'; Outlook Stable)
legislative mortgage covered bonds following Fitch's annual review.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
CIBC's LEGISLATIVE MORTGAGE COVERED BONDS: The 'AAA' rating of CIBC's
legislative mortgage covered bonds is based on the issuer's Issuer Default
Rating (IDR) of 'AA-', Fitch's unchanged Discontinuity Cap (D-Cap) of '3'
(moderate high risk) and the program's contractual asset percentage (AP) of
92.4% that Fitch takes into account in its analysis which provides more
protection than the 93% 'AAA' breakeven AP. The current contractual AP supports
the rating on an 'AAA' probability of default (PD) basis.
The 93% AAA' breakeven AP, corresponding to a breakeven overcollateralization
(OC) of 7.5% is driven by the cover pool's credit loss component of 7.5%,
followed by the asset disposal loss of 4%. The cash flow valuation component
leads to a lower 'AAA' breakeven OC by 1.7%. The 7.5% 'AAA' credit loss
represents the impact on the breakeven OC from the 15.4% weighted average (WA)
default rate and the 54.4% WA average recovery rate for the mortgage cover
assets. The breakeven AP considers whether timely payments are met in an 'AA'
scenario and tests for recoveries given default of at least 91% in an 'AAA'
scenario, this is why the sum of the breakeven OC drivers is higher than CIBC's
AAA breakeven OC.
Under the current Canadian banking legislation bail-in is not an explicit
provision; therefore, in Fitch's view, the IDR remains a satisfactory indicator
of the likelihood that the recourse against the cover pool would be enforced,
and no IDR uplift is applicable.
Canadian covered bond program documents include a feature called the Selected
Assets Required Amount (SARA) clause, which places some conditions on the sale
of assets in the event of an issuer default. Fitch has considered the impact of
this clause by modelling an issuer default in each of the first six quarters and
in every quarter with a covered bond maturity date to ensure that OC would be
sufficient for all possible sale periods under a given rating scenario.
There may be some scenarios not considered in Fitch's current analysis of the
SARA clause in Canadian covered bond programs. Fitch is currently in the process
of fine-tuning its approach to the SARA clause. Following this review, expected
to be completed in the third quarter of this year, Fitch will re-run the cash
flow modelling on these programs to evaluate any impact on the break-even AP for
the ratings.
Lastly, CIBC's program documents contain rating agency removal language (RRL),
which allows the issuer to remove a rating agency and rating agency specific
language from legal documents without consulting bondholders even if bondholders
may see this as materially prejudicial to their interests. For example, if
CIBC's ratings were downgraded by Fitch below 'A/F1' and CIBC chose to remove
Fitch's rating then this would also mean the removal of minimum Fitch rating
thresholds in respect of the account bank, cash manager deposit rating and
servicer deposit threshold rating below which there is currently a contractual
obligation to pursue certain remedies to protect against counterparty risk. This
would mean a counterparty could remain in its role without pursuing any form of
remedy in the event that the counterparty's Fitch rating fell below the
currently specified minimum Fitch rating thresholds. If Fitch's rating is
removed from the transaction, then Fitch may choose either to (i) withdraw its
rating; or (ii) maintain its rating provided there is sufficient information for
it to do so. In both cases, Fitch would reflect the removal of this contractual
obligation to protect against counterparty risk in its rating opinion (in the
case of withdrawal prior to the rating being withdrawn). This could lead to the
ratings of the notes being capped at the level of the counterparty's rating,
with any notes rated above this level being downgraded.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
The 'AAA' rating would be vulnerable to downgrade if any of the following
occurs: (i) CIBC's IDR is downgraded by three or more notches to 'A-' or below;
or (ii) the number of notches represented by the D-Cap is reduced to 0; or (iii)
the AP that Fitch considers in its analysis increases above Fitch's 'AAA'
breakeven level of 93.0%.
The Fitch breakeven AP for the covered bond rating will be affected, amongst
other factors, by the profile of the cover assets relative to outstanding
covered bonds, which can change over time even in the absence of new issuance.
Therefore, the breakeven AP to maintain the covered bond rating cannot be
assumed to remain stable over time.
Contact:
Primary Analyst
Roger Lin
Director
+1-212-908-0778
Fitch Ratings, Inc.
33 Whitehall Street
New York, NY 10004
Secondary Analyst
Susan Hosterman
Director
+1-212-908-0670
Committee Chairperson
Suzanne Mistretta
Senior Director
+1-212-908-0639
Media Relations: Sandro Scenga, New York, Tel: +1 212-908-0278, Email:
sandro.scenga@fitchratings.com.
Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com
Applicable Criteria
Canadian Residential Mortgage Loan Loss Model Criteria (pub. 16 Apr 2015)
https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=864357
Counterparty Criteria for Structured Finance and Covered Bonds (pub. 14 May
2014)
https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=744158
Counterparty Criteria for Structured Finance and Covered Bonds: Derivative
Addendum (pub. 14 May 2014)
https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=744175
Covered Bonds Rating Criteria - Effective from 23 July 2015 to 11 March 2016
(pub. 23 Jul 2015)
https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=868658
Covered Bonds Rating Criteria â Mortgage Liquidity and Refinancing Stress
Addendum - Effective from 6 July 2015 to 23 September 2015 (pub. 06 Jul 2015)
https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=867987
Criteria for Interest Rate Stresses in Structured Finance Transactions and
Covered Bonds - Effective from 19 December 2014 â 17 May 2016 (pub. 19 Dec 2014)
https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=838868
Global Structured Finance Rating Criteria (pub. 06 Jul 2015)
https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=867952
Additional Disclosures
Dodd-Frank Rating Information Disclosure Form
https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/press_releases/content/ridf_frame.cfm?pr
_id=1004707
Solicitation Status
https://www.fitchratings.com/gws/en/disclosure/solicitation?pr_id=1004707
Endorsement Policy
https://www.fitchratings.com/jsp/creditdesk/PolicyRegulation.faces?context=2&det
ail=31
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