St. Louis Federal Reserve's interim president, Kathleen O’Neill Paese, voiced concerns about the current economic uncertainty and potential inflation spikes that could prompt another federal funds rate hike. In a public speech on Thursday, she emphasized the feasibility for the U.S. central bank to await additional economic and inflation figures before contemplating an interest rate increase.
Paese backed the recent decision to hold the key short-term U.S. interest rate amidst signs of decreasing inflation pressures and labor shortages. However, she made it clear that without a steady push towards a 2% inflation target, additional hikes should not be discounted.
She detailed the present economic conditions that could lead to consumer spending exceeding estimates and intensifying inflation risk. These include tight labor markets, high household liquidity, and substantial unspent pandemic-era savings.
Furthermore, Paese is closely monitoring elements that could potentially slow down the economy quicker than the Federal Reserve's expectations. These factors encompass abrupt policy tightening causing financial instability, a possible government shutdown threat, or escalating geopolitical unrest such as an expanded Middle East war. Despite these potential roadblocks, she maintained that the existing policy is exerting a mild deflationary effect on inflation.
The interim president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve based her insights on dialogues with business leaders during an event in Indiana on Thursday. Her remarks add to the ongoing discourse around monetary policy amid uncertain economic conditions and inflationary pressures.
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