JAKARTA - Indonesia's trade figures for October have indicated a less severe decline in exports and imports than the previous month, signaling potential relief for the country's policymakers. Exports in October decreased by 10.4% year-on-year (YoY), which is an improvement from the 16.2% YoY drop observed in September. This change is attributed to global price fluctuations in significant commodities such as coal, nickel, and palm oil.
Imports also experienced a downturn, though to a lesser extent, falling by 2.4% YoY. This figure contrasts favorably with September's import reduction of 12.5% YoY. Despite these declines, Indonesia maintained a stable trade balance of approximately $3 billion.
The news of the unexpected trade surplus comes ahead of Bank Indonesia's (BI) policy meeting set for November 23, where the central bank might reconsider its stance on interest rate hikes. Previously, on October 19, BI had raised rates to support the rupiah, which was facing considerable pressure.
Economists are closely watching these developments as the improved trade balance and external position could play a significant role in stabilizing the Indonesian rupiah (IDR).
On a similar note, Norway reported a decrease in its foreign trade surplus for October due to a decline in exports, including a stark 100% drop in demand for ships and oil platforms and a 27.8% decrease in natural gas outflows. However, exports saw a monthly increase of 32%, with mainland exports rising by 11% from September. Despite this growth, the trade surplus reached NOK 86.9 billion, which was below the NOK 97.7 billion recorded last year.
These figures from Indonesia and Norway provide insight into the complexities of global trade dynamics amid fluctuating commodity prices and shifting market demands.
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