(Adds latest prices, quote)
Nov 7 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell on Thursday from a near eight-month high on forecasts the cold weather will moderate in late November despite a smaller than expected weekly storage build.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added just 34 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Nov. 1.
That is well below the 45-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an injection of 63 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2014-18) average build of 57 bcf for the period. EIA/GAS
The increase boosted stockpiles to 3.729 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 0.8% above the five-year average of 3.700 tcf for this time of year.
Earlier this year, the amount of gas in inventory was as much as 33% below the five-year average in March 2019. But with production at record highs, analysts said stockpiles would start the winter heating season near normal levels.
"This market received another bearish portent today when it was unable to maintain an EIA inspired gain that lifted values back to within a couple of cents of our expected resistance at the $2.90 mark," Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois, said in a report, noting the storage surplus will likely be erased in coming weeks.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 5.6 cents, or 2.0%, to settle at $2.772 per million British thermal units. The contract rose as high as $2.882 soon after the EIA released the storage report, putting it within a couple cents of Tuesday's high of $2.905, its highest level since Feb. 26.
That increase kept the front-month in technically overbought territory with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) over 70 for a ninth day in a row for the first time since September.
The U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) forecast temperatures in the Lower 48 U.S. states would remain much colder than normal across the eastern two-thirds of the country over the next six to 10 days before moderating during the eight to 14 day period.
With cold weather still blanketing much of the country, next-day gas for Thursday rose to its highest since March in Chicago NG-CG-CH-SNL and the Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana, and its highest since April at the Algonquin hub NG-CG-BS-SNL in New England, the Dominion South hub NG-PCN-APP-SNL in southwest Pennsylvania and New York City NG-CG-NY-SNL .
With more cold still expected, data provider Refinitiv projected average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 101.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 116.1 bcfd next week.
That compares with Refinitiv's forecasts on Wednesday of 100.9 bcfd for this week and 116.7 bcfd for next week.
Gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants held at 6.8 bcfd on Wednesday, the same as Tuesday, according to Refinitiv data. That is down from last week's average of 7.4 bcfd due mostly to a decline at Cheniere Energy Inc's LNG.A Corpus Christi plant in Texas and compares with an all-time daily high of 7.7 bcfd on Nov. 2.
Pipeline flows to Mexico held at 5.5 bcfd for a second day in a row on Wednesday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an average of 5.3 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 6.2 bcfd on Sept. 18.
Gas production in the Lower 48 slipped to 93.7 bcfd on Wednesday from 93.9 bcfd on Tuesday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an average of 94.3 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 95.0 bcfd on Oct. 28.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Nov.
Oct.
Nov. 1
average
1(Actual) 25(Actual)
Nov. 1
U.S. natgas storage (bcf):
+34
+51
+63
+57
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day Prior Day
Prior
10-Year
30-Year
Year
Norm
Norm U.S. GFS HDDs
373
373
340
251
261 U.S. GFS CDDs
8
10
12
14
12 U.S. GFS TDDs
381
383
352
265
273
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current
Next Week This week Five-Yea
Week
last year
r
Average
For
Month U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
94.2
94.3
94.4
87.6
76.3 U.S. Imports from Canada
6.6
7.3
7.5
7.2
7.9 U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2 Total U.S. Supply
100.8
101.7
102.0
95.0
84.4
U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada
2.1
2.8
2.8
3.1
2.4 U.S. Exports to Mexico
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.1
3.7 U.S. LNG Exports
7.2
7.2
7.1
3.8
1.5 U.S. Commercial
9.0
11.1
15.2
9.6
10.9 U.S. Residential
13.1
17.1
25.3
14.0
16.0 U.S. Power Plant
28.4
26.8
27.8
24.7
22.5 U.S. Industrial
23.2
23.6
25.0
22.8
22.8 U.S. Plant Fuel
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.7 U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.1
2.3
2.7
2.3
2.1 U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1 Total U.S. Consumption
80.6
85.6
100.8
78.2
79.1 Total U.S. Demand
95.2
101.1
116.1
90.2
86.7
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
2.82
2.75
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
2.70
2.36
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
3.43
3.45
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL
2.44
1.93
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.96
2.78
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
3.09
2.85
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
3.43
4.30
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
1.03
0.90
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
37.50
24.50
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
34.05
32.78
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
21.75
26.00
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
42.75
40.81
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
44.25
61.50
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
48.50
52.75