The US economy is projected to grow at an annualized rate of 2.2% in the third quarter of 2023, according to a forecasting model from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The model, relaunched on Friday by the New York Fed's Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center, uses news and economic reports to generate real-time estimates for current-quarter GDP growth. Updated estimates will be published weekly.
This projection comes as economists have been revising their GDP forecasts upwards, following a series of stronger-than-expected reports on sectors ranging from consumer spending to residential investment. However, projections vary significantly. For instance, an unofficial estimate by the Atlanta Fed predicts a more robust 5.6% annualized GDP growth for the third quarter.
If GDP growth surpasses 3.2%, it would represent the strongest quarter since 2021, a period marked by rapid recovery from the initial shock of the pandemic. The New York Fed staff has revised their model to better incorporate shifts in volatility and other changes to help identify outliers.
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