Nov 7 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell ahead of the release of a federal storage report on Thursday on signs the long streak of cold weather blanketing much of the country will break in late November.
The U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) forecast temperatures in the Lower 48 U.S. states would remain much colder than normal across the eastern two-thirds of the country over the next six to 10 days before moderating over the eight to 14 day period.
Analysts said utilities likely added a smaller-than-usual 45 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Nov. 1. That compares with an injection of 63 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2014-18) average build of 57 bcf for the period. EIA/GAS
If correct, the increase would boost stockpiles to 3.740 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 1.1% above the five-year average of 3.700 tcf for this time of year.
Earlier this year, the amount of gas in inventory was as much as 33% below the five-year average in March 2019. But with production at record highs, analysts said stockpiles would start the winter heating season at above normal levels.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its weekly storage report at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT) on Thursday.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 4.5 cents, or 1.6%, to $2.783 per million British thermal units at 8:09 a.m. EST.
That decline pushed the front-month out of technically overbought territory for the first time in nine days.
With cold weather blanketing much of the country, next-day gas for Thursday rose to its highest since March in Chicago NG-CG-CH-SNL and the Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana, and its highest since April at the Algonquin hub NG-CG-BS-SNL in New England, the Dominion South hub NG-PCN-APP-SNL in southwest Pennsylvania and New York City NG-CG-NY-SNL .
With more cold still expected next week, data provider Refinitiv projected average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 101.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 116.1 bcfd next week.
That compares with Refinitiv's forecasts on Wednesday of 100.9 bcfd for this week and 116.7 bcfd for next week.
Gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants held at 6.8 bcfd on Wednesday, the same as Tuesday, according to Refinitiv data. That is down from last week's average of 7.4 bcfd due mostly to a decline at Cheniere Energy Inc's LNG.A Corpus Christi plant in Texas and compares with an all-time daily high of 7.7 bcfd on Nov. 2.
Pipeline flows to Mexico held at 5.5 bcfd on Wednesday for a second day in a row, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an average of 5.3 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 6.2 bcfd on Sept. 18.
Gas production in the Lower 48 slipped to 93.7 bcfd on Wednesday from 93.9 bcfd on Tuesday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an average of 94.3 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 95.0 bcfd on Oct. 28.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Nov. 1
average
1(Forecast) 25(Actual)
Nov. 1
U.S. natgas storage (bcf):
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day Prior Day
Prior
10-Year
30-Year
Norm U.S. GFS HDDs
261 U.S. GFS CDDs
12 U.S. GFS TDDs
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current
Next Week This week Five-Yea
last year
Average
Month U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
76.3 U.S. Imports from Canada
7.9 U.S. LNG Imports
0.2 Total U.S. Supply
100.8
101.7
102.0
U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada
2.4 U.S. Exports to Mexico
3.7 U.S. LNG Exports
1.5 U.S. Commercial
10.9 U.S. Residential
16.0 U.S. Power Plant
22.5 U.S. Industrial
22.8 U.S. Plant Fuel
4.7 U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.1 U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1 Total U.S. Consumption
100.8
79.1 Total U.S. Demand
101.1
116.1
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Current Day Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
37.50
24.50
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
34.05
32.78
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
21.75
26.00
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
42.75
40.81
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
44.25
61.50
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
48.50
52.75