Nov 6 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held near a seven-month high on Wednesday on unchanged forecasts calling for much colder than normal weather through late November.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 0.7 cents, or 0.2%, to $2.869 per million British thermal units at 9:01 a.m. EST (1401 GMT). On Tuesday, the contract closed at its highest since March 19.
The front-month remained in technically overbought territory with a relative strength index (RSI) over 70 for an eighth day in a row for the first time since September.
Over the next six to 10 days, the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) forecast temperatures in the Lower 48 U.S. states would remain lower than normal in the middle and Northeast parts of the country and warmer in the Southwest and Southeast. In its 8-14 day outlook, the NWS said the cold will blanket the eastern two thirds of the country, while the western third will turn warmer than normal.
With the weather turning colder with the coming of winter, data provider Refinitiv projected average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 100.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 116.7 bcfd next week.
That compares with Refinitiv's forecasts on Tuesday of 100.5 bcfd for this week and 117.0 bcfd for next week.
Gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants fell to 6.8 bcfd on Tuesday due mostly to a decline at Cheniere Energy Inc's LNG.A Corpus Christi plant in Texas, down from 7.2 bcfd on Monday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an average of 7.4 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 7.7 bcfd on Nov. 2.
Pipeline flows to Mexico rose to 5.5 bcfd on Tuesday from 5.3 on Monday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an average of 5.3 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 6.2 bcfd on Sept. 18.
Analysts said utilities likely added a smaller-than-usual 45 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Nov. 1. That compares with an injection of 63 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2014-18) average build of 57 bcf for the period.
If correct, the increase would boost stockpiles to 3.740 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 1.1% above the five-year average of 3.700 tcf for this time of year.
Gas production in the Lower 48 slipped to 94.0 bcfd on Tuesday from 94.8 bcfd on Monday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an average of 94.3 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 95.0 bcfd on Oct. 28.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Nov. 1
average
1(Forecast) 25(Actual)
Nov. 1
U.S. natgas storage (bcf):
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day Prior Day
Prior
10-Year
30-Year
Norm U.S. GFS HDDs
255 U.S. GFS CDDs
12 U.S. GFS TDDs
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current
Next Week This week Five-Yea
last year
Average
Month U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
76.3 U.S. Imports from Canada
7.9 U.S. LNG Imports
0.2 Total U.S. Supply
100.8
101.7
102.3
U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada
2.4 U.S. Exports to Mexico
3.7 U.S. LNG Exports
1.5 U.S. Commercial
10.9 U.S. Residential
16.0 U.S. Power Plant
22.5 U.S. Industrial
22.8 U.S. Plant Fuel
4.7 U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.1 U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1 Total U.S. Consumption
101.7
79.1 Total U.S. Demand
100.9
116.7
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Current Day Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
24.50
26.50
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
32.78
31.57
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
26.00
33.50
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
40.81
52.50
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
61.50
47.50
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
52.75
53.50