What to Watch in the Week Ahead and on Monday, Nov 30

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WEEK AHEAD

Markets next week get a big dose of international developments
before a swift pivot back to the United States - with the IMF's
decision on inclusion of the yuan in its benchmark currency
basket, along with meetings out of the European Central Bank and
Swiss National Bank, both of which are expected to add more
monetary stimulus just two weeks before the Fed is expected to
raise interest rates. That should keep the dollar supported and
boost U.S. bond yields ahead of Friday's jobs report, the last
box to check off before investors agree that, yes, a rate hike
is on the way. On Thursday, investors will also look at the
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's testimony on the economic
outlook before the congressional Joint Economic Committee. She
also gives welcome remarks before the National College Fed
Challenge Finals and speaks on the economic outlook before the
Economic Club of Washington on Wednesday.

Investors will work through another spate of economic figures
that include nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rates, ADP National
Employment Report, auto sales figures, the Purchasing Managers'
Index from financial data firm Markit and the Institute for
Supply Management and numbers for durable goods. In data due on
Thursday, the nonfarm payrolls are expected to have declined
200,000 in November and the unemployment rate is likely to keep
the same pace like its previous month, when it hit a 7-1/2-year
low of 5.0 percent. Meanwhile, private employers are likely to
add 190,000 jobs in November, a report, due on Wednesday, is
expected to show. Auto sales figures are due on Tuesday.

Medtronic (N:MDT) Plc, the largest standalone medical device maker, will
report better-than-expected second-quarter profit on Thursday as
the company reaps the benefits of buying Covidien and demand for
its products rise in China. The company is expected to keep
increasing its market share in China, a territory that has been
challenging for other companies in the healthcare industry, such
as drugmakers and nutritional product makers. Analysts will also
be looking for comments to see if patients, who had put off
optional procedures during the recent financial crisis, opt to
have their surgeries regaining confidence from an improving
economy and healthcare insurance coverage provided by Obamacare.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Board Governor Daniel Tarullo
participates in the Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork
Reduction Act Outreach Meeting hosted by the Federal Deposit
Insurance Corp, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
President Patrick Harker gives welcome remarks before "Bridging
the Gap: Promising Approaches and Emerging Practices for
Addressing Youth Unemployment" forum hosted by the Federal
Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and the Federal Reserve Bank of San
Francisco President John Williams speaks on the economic outlook
before a meeting of Portland community leaders. On Tuesday, the
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans speaks
on current economic conditions and monetary policy before the
Lansing Regional Chamber of Commerce Economic Club Luncheon.
Separately, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President
Loretta Mester gives welcome remarks before the "Financial
Stability: Policy Analysis and Data Needs" conference sponsored
by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the Treasury Dept.
Office of Financial Research on Thursday. The Federal Reserve
Vice Chair Stanley Fischer also speaks on the same day on
"Financial Stability and Shadow Banks" before the Federal
Reserve Bank of Cleveland Financial Stability Conference. On
Friday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President
Narayana Kocherlakota speaks on "Monetary Policy
Renormalization" before "The New Normal for the U.S. Economy"
forum hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

Discount retailer Dollar General Corp's same-store sales are
likely to come in below analysts' estimates for the third
quarter on Thursday, hurt by clearance activity at Family
Dollar, which was acquired by Dollar Tree (O:DLTR) this year. The deal
also dislodged Dollar General from its No.1 U.S. discount
retailer status. However, the company's expanded assortment of
health and beauty products and sales of popular licensed items
such as Star Wars toys is expected to have boosted sales in the
quarter.

Chipmaker Marvell Technology Group Ltd is expected to report
third-quarter results below analysts' average estimates on
Thursday, according to Thomson Reuters StarMine, hurt by weak
demand for its chips used in PCs and third-generation mobile
phones. Investors would look for any comment about the health of
its PC-chip business and whether the company needs to trim its
workforce further.

Cloud storage provider Box Inc is expected to report
third-quarter revenue slightly above analysts' average estimates
on Wednesday, according to Thomson Reuters StarMine data, as
more users sign up for its services. Investors will be looking
out for Box's outlook to see if the company is able to maintain
its growth momentum and gain subscribers from rivals.

Teen apparel retailer American Eagle Outfitters (N:AEO) Inc is expected
to report third-quarter profit and sales above analysts'
estimates on Wednesday, according to Thomson Reuters StarMine.
The earnings beat is expected to be driven by strong demand for
its American Eagle and Aerie brands, coupled with fewer
discounts. Investors will look for forecast for sales in the
holiday quarter and commentary on promotions and trends.

Another teen apparel retailer Aeropostale Inc is expected to
report a loss for the 12th straight quarter. The company has
been steadily narrowing its losses as it clamps down on
discounts. In the last four months, the troubled mall-based
retailer has received two notices from the New York Stock
Exchange as it failed to satisfy listing requirements. When the
company reports its third-quarter results on Wednesday,
investors will look for forecast and commentary for sales in the
holiday quarter.

The ECB is almost certain to ease policy but what measures it
will take is up in the air and will be closely looking by the
investors on Thursday. The Governing Council is expected to
debate a wide range of options, from a fairly uncontroversial
deposit rate cut to a highly unorthodox scheme to buy up bundled
non performing loans. Markets expect the bank to settle on a 10
basis point rate cut, a slight increase in monthly asset buys
and a modest extension of the quantitative easing programme.
However, given the wide range of options on the table and the
ECB's practice of overdelivering, a surprise is highly likely.

ECB publishes Target 2 balances on Tuesday. The Target 2 system
facilitates payments between banks in different euro zone
countries by channeling them through each national central
bank's account at the ECB. Cross-border payment imbalances
increased during the 2010-2012 euro zone debt crisis as the
private sector withdrew capital and banks turned to the ECB for
funding because banks from the stronger economies stopped
lending to them. Italian and Spanish net liabilities have
declined from their 2012 peak while Greece's have increased
again since late 2014, along with political uncertainty in the
country. The ECB said it would now publish Target 2 data on the
first working day of every month, albeit with a one-month time
lag.

Department store Sears Canada Inc is expected to post a rise in
third-quarter same-store-sales on Thursday, which has been
falling for two years. Investors will be interested to know how
the struggling store operator plans on increasing profit from
operations, besides selling assets and units. Investors are also
interested in how and when the company plans to settle all the
pending law suits against it.

On Wednesday, major fertilizer companies present at a Citi
investor conference in New York amid slumping fertilizer prices
and profits. Of interest will be CF Industries' comments on a
U.S. legislation that could scuttle the benefits of tax
inversions. The company is in process of acquiring some assets
from OCI and switching its tax address to the United Kingdom.

Canada is heading into a busy week that includes reports on
growth, trade and the jobs market, as well as an interest rate
decision from the Bank of Canada. The gross domestic product
report on Tuesday is expected to confirm that the economy pulled
out of recession in the third quarter, with growth forecast to
ramp up to a 2.3 percent annualized rate. However, monthly
figures are expected to show no growth for September, suggesting
the third quarter ended on a weak note. The jobs report is due
on Friday, with the labor market expected to have shed 2,900
jobs in November, pulling back from a temporary boost in October
due to the federal election. Also on Friday, the October trade
deficit is seen widening modestly. The Bank of Canada will make
its interest rate decision on Wednesday. The central bank is
widely expected to hold interest rates at 0.50 percent, after
cutting rates twice this year to offset the shock to the economy
from the drop in oil prices.

Brazil's economy probably shrank at the fastest annual pace on
record in the third quarter, crippled by a combination of
government budget cuts, rising inflation and political gridlock.
On Tuesday, the gross domestic product in Latin America's
largest economy likely contracted 1.2 percent in the third
quarter from the second after seasonal adjustments, following a
decline of 1.9 percent between April and June. Also, data on
industrial output for October and auto sales figures are due on
Thursday and Friday, respectively. Meanwhile, Peru's statistics
agency will issue monthly inflation rate for November.
Separately, the closely watched survey of economists by the
Mexico central bank sheds light on analyst expectations for
growth and inflation on Tuesday.

ON MONDAY, NOV 30

The National Association of Realtors issues data on pending home
sales for October. Contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes
are likely to have increased 1.5 percent in October, compared to
a fall of 2.3 percent in September. (1000/1500)

The International Monetary Fund is expected to add China's yuan
to its benchmark currency basket at a board meeting in a
symbolic win for Beijing. Adding the yuan to the Special Drawing
Rights basket would mark the biggest change since 1980, when the
number of currencies in the basket was cut from 16.

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors holds open meeting to
discuss a final rule to implement the Dodd-Frank amendments to
the emergency lending authority under Section 13(3) of the
Federal Reserve Act. (0830/1330)

Ford plans a conference call to discuss the recently ratified
contract with the United Auto Workers, which represents about
53,000 workers at Ford U.S. factories. The company could also
discuss more details of its planned $9 billion investments in
U.S. operations.

After similar effort that failed in Copenhagen in 2009, a UN
global summit in Paris aims to strike binding agreement under
which 195 countries commit to curb carbon emissions by specific
amounts in a drive to keep the rise in the average world
temperature to a maximum 2 degrees; large number of world
leaders are expected to attend the opening and perhaps closing
moment of a conference that will involve some 40,000
guests/negotiators over a period of two weeks. The Paris Climate
Change Conference will take place from Nov. 30 to Dec. 11.

Statistics Canada issues figures for current account. Canada's
current account deficit is expected to have narrowed in the
third quarter to C$15.15 billion. (0830/1330)

Brazil's central bank releases its monthly report on the federal
budget. The primary balance is a gauge closely watched by
investors because it measures a country's ability to service its
debt. Separately, Chile's government will release jobless
figures for August-October. Unemployment has stayed low through
the recent slowdown. The country's statistics institute will
also issue factory output for October. Investors will be looking
for signs as to whether economic recovery is gaining traction
and in which sectors. Meanwhile, Argentina's government is due
to release October industrial production data.

LIVECHAT - FX WEEK AHEAD with Reuters FX analyst Jeremy Boulton
and GLOBAL FLOWS with Lipper
Join Reuters FX analyst Jeremy Boulton at (0500 ET/1000 GMT) for
a look at the week's top topics and implications for the FX
market. Separately, Lipper analyst Jake Moeller discusses latest
industry data, looking at mutual fund closures, launches and
mergers. To join the Global Markets Forum, click here