Ternium SA (TX) reported Q3 EPS of $0.78, $1.35 worse than the analyst estimate of $2.13. Revenue for the quarter came in at $4.13 billion versus the consensus estimate of $4.2 billion.
GUIDANCE:
Ternium expects a lower adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the third quarter, as a temporary mismatch between a decline in realized steel prices and high costs per ton should result in a decrease in the steel margin. Despite current raw material prices being considerably lower across the global market than in the first half of 2022, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted steel markets, the company will experience a gradual flow of relatively high-cost raw materials through inventory in the fourth quarter. Ternium anticipates this dynamic to mostly reverse during the first quarter of 2023.
In Mexico, the company expects fourth quarter shipments to increase slightly compared to the third quarter, despite December being a seasonally slow month. Ternium anticipates this increase to be driven by market share improvements and some restocking in the commercial market due to a decrease in steel price volatility after an extended period of price declines. On the other hand, Mexico's industrial market is exhibiting some softening, mainly related to weakness in the US housing market, which in turn affects Mexico's household appliances and HVAC industries. In addition, although the global auto industry's supply chain difficulties are gradually improving, they continue to negatively impact the Mexican auto industry's ability to meaningfully increase production levels at a time of abnormally low finished products inventory in the value chain. This dynamic should create an upside for steel shipments to the Mexican auto industry during 2023.
In Argentina, steel demand remains stable. The country's construction sector, as well as the household appliances, automotive and energy industries, are operating at good levels.