Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Long-term government bond yields stabilized in the U.S. (-2 basis points week-over-week for the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.23%) while the 2-year yield closed 14 basis points higher at 5.08% (10-2...

“China, Japan, inflation, deficits, and QT, oh my!” – The chant of bond traders watching yields creep higher. Despite the highest yields in 15 years, some bearish bond traders think they can go much...

The last time you could lock in a real (inflation-adjusted) yield with inflation-adjusted Treasuries (TIPS), the world was still cleaning up the mess from the financial crisis. A lot has changed since...

Rising interest rates are beginning to spook investors. And rightfully so. It’s been the fastest rise in rates in decades. And just when we thought interest rates were easing, they pushed higher once...

Following stronger-than-anticipated retail sales, US Treasury yields escalated as investors contemplated the Federal Reserve's potential rise in rates later this year. The Fed’s minutes from their...

For much of the year, the bond market has been embracing expectations that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases have peaked or were about to peak. The underlying logic centered on the ongoing...

The 10-year Treasury yield continues to trade at a level well above CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value estimate, but the gap suggests that further increases in the benchmark rate are facing stronger...

The global rise in interest rates may be peaking, a view that’s helped lift most corners of foreign bond markets year to date, based on a set of ETFs through yesterday’s close (Aug. 9). Leading the...

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield soared to 4.19% on Thursday, peaking for the first time since November 2022, but retreated significantly on Friday, ending at 4.04% (+8 basis points over the week) in...

Interest rates continue climbing this year, but that hasn’t stopped bonds from rallying in 2023 when measured in total-return terms. The main exception is long-dated US Treasuries. Otherwise, the...

Interest rates remain in the spotlight, with investors watching every economic data release and wondering when the Federal Reserve will stop raising rates. Well, one way to gauge this environment is...

Government bonds experienced a sharp decline after the US economy grew stronger than expected in the second quarter and the Fed raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing the benchmark...

The Federal Reserve is poised to resume raising interest rates this month after keeping them unchanged in June. Traders anticipate a boost of a quarter of a percentage point, but some speculate that...

The future’s still uncertain, of course, and so all forecasts should be viewed cautiously. For perspective, let’s start with the one thing we know is true: We’re closer to the peak than we were in the...