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James Picerno
Treasury Market Bets Against Fed as Inflation Persists By James Picerno - Apr 11, 2024

The market continues to price the US 10-year Treasury yield well above its estimated “fair value,” based on the average of three models run by CapitalSpectator.com.Yesterday’s...

James Picerno
Is the Worst Over for Bonds? By James Picerno - Mar 27, 2024

The bond market has struggled to fully recover from the Federal Reserve’s aggressive run of interest-rate hikes in 2022-2023, but pockets of strength remain conspicuous. Within the fixed-income...

TrackInsight
Treasury Yields Rise After Inflation Data By TrackInsight - Mar 18, 2024

Inflation ticked higher across the U.S. in February. The consumer price index rose at an annual pace of 3.2%, up slightly from 3.1% the previous month. The strength of this reading is likely to...

James Picerno
10-Year Yield: Why the Hot Inflation Bounce Didn't Last By James Picerno - Feb 15, 2024

Yesterday I outlined the case that several ‘fair-value’ models suggest the current US 10-year Treasury yield appears high relative to the fundamentals.As a quick follow-up, what does a...

James Picerno
Are High Yield Bonds in Emerging Markets Worth the Risk? By James Picerno - Feb 13, 2024

Much of the global bond market is struggling this year, with a conspicuous exception: below-investment-grade bonds issued by companies in emerging markets.Based on year-to-date results through...

James Picerno
Treasury Market Misjudges Timing on First Rate Cut, Again By James Picerno - Feb 06, 2024

We’ve been here before. In the spring of 2023, the bond market rallied sharply, effectively forecasting a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.But the punt turned to tears as the Federal Reserve...

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