Bonds Analysis & Opinion

By Benjamin SchroederMarkets are clearly eyeing the turn of the rate cycle, but amid central banks’ 'high for longer' messaging and data releases, volatility remains elevated. Add to that the...

The October reading of the U.S. consumer price index (CPI), a major inflation gauge, reassured investors. The annual rate cooled to 3.2% from September's 3.7%, falling under 3.3% forecasts. Core...

By Benjamin Schroeder and Padhraic GarveyWhile the market is clearly eyeing a change in the rate cycle, 10-year UST yields are still fighting a battle along the 4.5% area, with the deficit-induced...

Today’s “fair value” estimate of the US 10-year Treasury yield continues to suggest that the current market rate is unusually lofty and that the spread will soon narrow....

By Padhraic Garvey & Benjamin SchroederHow convinced are we that the Fed has peaked? You can never be 100% sure on this, but the odds firmly favor the view that they’re done. That places...

Current yields for the major asset classes edged higher recently, based on a set of proxy ETFs through the close of trading on Monday, Nov. 13.The average yield for global risk assets ticked up to...

The Federal Open Market Committee is “not confident” that it has tightened policy to a “sufficiently restrictive stance” needed to bring inflation back to the Fed's 2% target,...

US Treasury yields fell again as investors appear more inclined to believe that there will be no further interest rate hikes in the coming months, following the latest policy-setting meeting by the...

By Padhraic GarveyAs we hold above 4.5% for the US 10-year, the immediate issue is 10-year and 30-year auctions. Beyond that into next week, prepare for a big drop in US headline inflation. Then...

Is the bond bear market finally over? That is the question everyone is asking now that bond prices rallied sharply following the November FOMC policy meeting. As noted earlier: “On Wednesday,...

By Padhraic Garvey and Benjamin SchroederThe Rally In Long-End Rates Extended With the Curve Flattening AcceleratingOverall, we have now seen a drop of close to 30bp in 10-Year and longer yields over...

US Treasury yields retreated in the last week of October, as signs of easing inflation offset strong Q3 economic growth. The core price consumer expenditure index, a measure of inflation closely...

Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds shot up to levels not seen since early 2007 – the start of the subprime mortgage crisis - following Jerome Powell’s speech. The latter suggested that...

United States 10-Year yields are closing in on 5%. What's the Big Deal? What does it mean for stocks and gold?