Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates this week. The question is whether the bond market has fully priced in the start of policy easing? It’s tempting to say “yes” after reviewing...

The level of U.S. Treasury yields and the changing shape of the Treasury yield curve provide investors with critical feedback regarding the market’s expectations for economic growth, inflation, and...

Fixed income as an asset class is looking bullish as Fed Chairman Powell prepares to give a widely anticipated speech this Friday (Aug. 23). The central banker is expected to drop clues about the...

The spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and a ‘fair value’ estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com continued to narrow in July. The market rate is still well above the model’s estimate,...

Primary Factors Influencing Treasury Yield Reduction The recent substantial reduction in U.S. Treasury yields can be traced back to several elements. Firstly, indications of subsiding inflation have...

Year-to-date returns for US fixed income are skewing positive this year ahead of the Federal Reserve policy announcement this afternoon. Although the central bank is expected to leave rates unchanged...

The spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield vs. a ‘fair value’ estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com narrowed to a three-month low in June. The market-based yield is still well above this...

A month ago it was reasonable to wonder if the worst was over for fixed-income securities writ large. Four weeks later, Treasury prices are slightly higher, but the debate continues as investors...

The recent upheaval in France’s bond market hints at a potential turning point for the wealthiest nations within the eurozone. Traditionally, the volatility seen today was more common in high-debt...

France and Germany See Economic Slowdown The PMI surveys, carried out by S&P Global/HCOB, revealed weak demand IS impacting France's economic activity for the second month in a row. The PMI Flash...

When stocks are in a bull market, we tend to see assets like growth stocks and junk bonds perform well as investors are in “risk-on” mode. And oftentimes, these are the assets to start...

The bond market is under scrutiny in France as the 10-year OAT/Bund spread has spiked amid political uncertainties fueled by President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to initiate early legislative...

The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to defy The Capital Spectator’s ‘fair-value’ estimate by trading at a premium to this model, but the relatively wide gap still appears to be a constraint to...

The sharp drop in Treasury yields in recent days has revived chatter that the worst for the bond market may be over. It’s still early to confidently forecast that scenario, but the odds for recovery...