Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The market continues to price the US 10-year Treasury yield well above its estimated “fair value,” based on the average of three models run by CapitalSpectator.com.Yesterday’s...

The bond market has struggled to fully recover from the Federal Reserve’s aggressive run of interest-rate hikes in 2022-2023, but pockets of strength remain conspicuous. Within the fixed-income...

The 10-year treasury bond yield is very closely watched by banks, consumers, and active investors. It is used as a measuring stick for interest rates on loans, bond auctions, etc. When the...

Inflation ticked higher across the U.S. in February. The consumer price index rose at an annual pace of 3.2%, up slightly from 3.1% the previous month. The strength of this reading is likely to...

The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to trade well above a ‘fair value’ estimate, based on the average of three models maintained by CapitalSpectator.com.The market premium continues to...

By Benjamin SchroederOverall, we think the bearish sentiment can keep going in the near term. For markets, the main focus remains on the assessment of the US macro backdrop, with plenty of data this...

With a Labor Department report showing U.S. consumer prices increased more than expected in January amid rises in the costs of shelter and healthcare, the week did not allow U.S. bond markets to...

Yesterday I outlined the case that several ‘fair-value’ models suggest the current US 10-year Treasury yield appears high relative to the fundamentals.As a quick follow-up, what does a...

The US 10-year Treasury yield spiked yesterday following the release of hotter-than-expected consumer inflation data in January.The news also convinced the market that the Federal Reserve would push...

Much of the global bond market is struggling this year, with a conspicuous exception: below-investment-grade bonds issued by companies in emerging markets.Based on year-to-date results through...

Modest gains in some corners of fixed income contrast with sharp losses elsewhere for year-to-date results with the broadly defined US bond market, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close...

By Michiel TukkerThe US economy has surprised to the upside over the past few weeks but yields have not shown much reaction to this narrative. We see this as one of the reasons why US yields may test...

By Benjamin SchroederA lack of notable data releases allows EUR rates to look up again amid hawkish central bank talk. Banking jitters continue to add volatility, but scanning the usual indicators of...

By Padhraic GarveyThe Fed and the European Central Bank are on holding patterns. Tuesday saw the data vacuum allow yields to drift lower after two days of dramatic rises. Holding patterns can be...