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Opening Bell: U.S. Futures, Europe Stocks Rebound; Treasurys Resume Climb

Published 2020-01-28, 06:29 a/m

  • Investors regained some confidence after global effort to limit China virus spread
  • Despite virus headlines, week full of important earnings and central banks policies
  • Technically, U.S. stocks have triggered bearish signals
  • Key Events

    The coronavirus-led selloff showed the first signs of ebbing amid worldwide efforts to stop the spread of the disease. U.S. futures found their footing along with European stocks, while Asian markets that were open extended the selloff.

    While China's death toll from the virus rose to 106, investors are cautiously turning their attention to a batch of earnings, including Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), and central bank policy decisions from the U.S., UK and the EU.

    Global Financial Affairs

    SmallCap Futures Daily Chart

    Contracts on most major U.S. indices rebounded above uptrend lines since the Oct. bottom, the RSI fell below its uptrend line in the same period for the respective gauges. Russell Futures alone crossed below the uptrend line since the beginning of Oct, as small caps are the first to go when investors fear a market correction.

    Stoxx Daily Chart

    The STOXX Europe 600 Index also rebounded and, like its American counterparts, it too found support by its uptrend line since its Aug. 15 bottom. And, again similarly to U.S. indices, its RSI fell below its corresponding uptrend line.

    Most major Asian markets were still closed for the Lunar New Year holiday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (-0.55%) fell for the second day, while South Korea’s KOSPI (-3.09%) underperformed, falling the most in 15 months and catching up with the wider selloff as it reopened after the holiday. Chinese markets are scheduled to reopen Monday.

    UST Daily Chart

    Yields edged lower, extending their slide for the seventh straight session after hitting the 200 DMA, to the lowest since Oct. 9. Rates broke a support line since Nov. 1, at the same time returning to below the downtrend line since Nov. 2018. Look out for the most oversold RSI since mid-August, which preceded the recent rebound to close to 2.00.

    The increasing demand for Treasurys, boosted the dollar index for the fourth day in a row, breaking out of a falling channel since the Sept. top.

    U.S. Dollar Index

    The Japanese yen was flat.

    The yuan kept falling, but so far only as a correction within an uptrend.

    Gold remain unchanged, unable to get through the $1,600, as a heavy dollar – boosted by foreign demand for Treasurys – weighed on the precious metal.


    Bitcoin climbed for the third consecutive day, trading today above the 200 DMA as it extends an upside breakout of a falling flag, following a bullish pennant and crossing over the downtrend line since the June top. While the price reached the highest since November, keep an eye out for today’s candle, currently forming a shooting star below the Jan. 19 high.

    WTI Daily Chart

    Oil was little changed after dropping as low as $52.16 yesterday, the lowest since August and only 1% above the lowest since January 2019. However, if the $50 level gives way, it could get a lot uglier. Look out for the most oversold RSI level since June, preceding a $10, 20% jump in just about a month.

    Up Ahead

    • Earnings are due on Tuesday from Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT), United Technologies (NYSE:UTX) and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL); Wednesday brings reports from General Electric Company (NYSE:GE), Boeing (NYSE:BA) and Facebook (NASDAQ:FB); Samsung Electronics (KS:005930), International Paper Company (NYSE:IP), Unilever (LON:ULVR) and Shell (LON:RDSa) report on Thursday, followed by Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) and Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) all on Friday.

    • Fed policy makers on Wednesday are expected to open 2020 the same way they closed 2019 -- by holding interest rates steady.

  • Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) will hold its first-ever Investor Day on Wednesday.
    • The BOE meeting is highly anticipated Thursday after a series of dovish comments raised speculation policy makers could lower interest rates.

    • The U.S. reports fourth-quarter GDP Thursday.

  • The U.K. is scheduled to leave the European Union Friday.
  • Market Moves


    • The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.5%.
    • Futures on the S&P 500 Index jumped 0.6%.
    • South Korea’s Kospi index sank 3.1%.
    • The MSCI Emerging Market Index decreased 0.5%.


  • The Dollar Index was little changed.
    • The British pound sank 0.3% to $1.3022.

    • The euro was unchanged at $1.1019.

  • The Japanese yen weakened 0.1% to 109.03 per dollar.
  • The offshore yuan strengthened 0.2% to 6.9702 per dollar.
  • Bonds

    • The yield on 10-year Treasuries was unchanged at 1.61%.
    • Germany’s 10-year yield was unchanged at -0.39%.
    • Britain’s 10-year yield dipped less than one basis point to 0.505%.


  • Gold weakened 0.3% to $1,578.10 an ounce.
    • Iron ore declined 1.8% to $83.68 per metric ton.

  • West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.1% to $53.07 a barrel.
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