By Rosalba O'Brien and Rod Nickel
SANTIAGO/TORONTO, March 15 (Reuters) - Far from the soy and
cattle that dominate its vast fertile pampas, Argentina harbors
another valuable commodity that is rocketing in price and demand
and luring newly welcomed foreign investors.
Lithium, the so-called "white petroleum", drives much of the
modern world. It forms a small but essentially irreplaceable
component of rechargeable batteries, used in consumer devices
like mobile phones and electric cars. It also has pharmaceutical
and other applications.
Over half of the earth's identified resources of the mineral
are found in South America's "lithium triangle", an otherworldly
landscape of high-altitude lakes and bright white salt flats
that straddles Chile, Argentina and Bolivia.
Until recently, that was not great news for investors.
Argentina and Bolivia lacked predictability and a friendly
business environment, while Chile kept strict control over
lithium output.
But that may be all about to change.
In Chile, a sale of state lithium deposits and a shake-up in
the way the country manages its resources has awakened interest
from everyone from early-stage mining companies to electric
carmakers like Tesla TSLA.O .
In Argentina, already the world's no. 3 lithium producer
after Chile and Australia, investors are hopeful that the new
Mauricio Macri government that took over in December will herald
a brighter future.
Business-friendly Macri has begun making sweeping changes in
a bid to return the country to economic orthodoxy, removing
onerous capital controls and sending a message that the country
is open for business again after more than a decade of
protectionism.
"For 10 or 12 years, (Argentina) was a do-not-invest zone.
The tone of doing business has just swung 180 degrees," said Tom
Hodgson, the chief executive of Western Lithium WLC.TO , which
is developing a project in the country due to begin production
next year.
Argentina now has a "major opportunity" to build a lithium
export business, Hodgson told Reuters earlier this month at a
mining conference in Toronto.
Western Lithium is working with Korean steelmaker POSCO
005490.KS , whose chairman was in Argentina last month to meet
with Macri and begin the construction of a new lithium plant,
due to begin commercial production within a year. The
exploratory mining company Orocobre ORE.AX is also developing
a project.
But the company perhaps best set to benefit from an
Argentine lithium revolution is U.S. agricultural and chemical
conglomerate FMC Corp (NYSE:FMC) FMC.N .
FMC is already producing lithium from the Salar de Hombre
Muerto salt flat in northern Argentina. Lithium provides a small
but growing part of FMC's revenues, with forecast sales of
around $250 million this year.
"Now the (Argentine) administration is starting to change
policy, it's giving us even more confidence that it will be a
predictable and cost-effective operation," FMC Lithium
Vice-President Tom Schneberger said.
"We expect significant year-over-year improvement for
lithium in 2016 and we see that going clear to 2020."
Demand for lithium is set to outstrip supply by 2023,
according to specialist consultants Stormcrow Capital, with the
lion's share coming from rechargeable batteries.
CHILE CLIMATE 'PERFECT'
Bolivia has more identified lithium resources than any other
country, but commercially it's likely to be "shunted to the side
for an extended period", says Jon Hykawy, Stormcrow's president.
Bolivia has natural challenges - too much rain, other chemicals
in the mix - as well as a prickly investment environment.
Chile, though, is popular with investors for its free market
credentials, while the dry desert climate is "perfect" for
lithium production, said Brian Jaskula, a U.S. Geological Survey
mineral commodity specialist.
The key lithium site in Chile is the vast Salar de Atacama
salt flat, where local firm SQM SQMa.SN SQM_pb.SN SQM.N
and foreign-owned Rockwood have operations.
SQM was privatized in the 1980s during General Augusto
Pinochet's regime and a former son-in-law of the late dictator
owns a controlling stake.
But it is on uneasy terms with the current leftist
government. In the last two years, it has run afoul of
authorities over market manipulation and dubious tax invoices,
and is in arbitration with economic development agency Corfo
over royalties.
Now U.S. specialty chemicals firm Albemarle Corp ALB.N is
muscling in on SQM's turf. Having spent $6 billion last year to
buy Rockwood, it then signed a deal with Corfo in its drive to
triple lithium output in Chile.
Chile's government said it sees public-private partnerships
as the way forward and is planning to put more deposits up for
tender.
It denies favoring any particular company.
"Chile is willing to work with anybody who wants to explore
and produce ore, provided they comply with Chile's requirements
and standards," Mining Minister Aurora Williams told Reuters.
However, Corfo head Eduardo Bitran insisted private lithium
investment must be "sustainable" and in the interests of
Chileans.
Albemarle and SQM declined to be interviewed for this story.
But SQM said in an investor conference call this month that it
wanted to increase lithium output in Chile, as well as look at
unspecified "opportunities around the world".
SECURING SUPPLIES
Industry insiders warn that, no matter how friendly the
government, the process of ramping up output is a complex one.
That leaves battery makers and other end users of lithium
largely at the mercy of the big providers.
In addition to Tesla, traditional car companies including
Nissan 7201.T and BMW BMWG.DE operate in the burgeoning
electric vehicle industry. Germany's Daimler DAIGn.DE recently
announced that it would build a new lithium-ion battery factory,
while technology firms like Samsung 005930.KS and Foxconn
2354.TW are also key users.
As prices rise, they are keen to lock in deals. Lithium
carbonate is selling for $6,400 per kilo, up from $5,180 in
2011. Prices in the opaque Chinese market are reportedly higher.
Tesla and other car manufacturers have been to Chile to see
if they could ensure future lithium supplies, according to
Ignacio Moreno, Chile's deputy mining minister.
Tesla declined to comment on talks, but said it has signed
three deals with exploratory companies outside Chile that would
"not provide all" its lithium.
Battery makers "are looking for any source across the world
that they can establish joint ventures with, no matter how risky
they are," said Jaskula.
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Graphic on lithium resources and production http://tmsnrt.rs/21mrkWa
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>