Sept 16 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased on Wednesday on forecasts confirming the weather will turn milder over the next two weeks.
That price decline came despite a continued rise in liquefied natural gas exports and a drop in output to its lowest in over two years after producers shut-in wells before Hurricane Sally smashed into the Gulf Coast.
Sally knocked out power to over 430,000 homes and businesses in Alabama and Florida when it hit the Alabama coast early Wednesday. The storm will stay far from any operating LNG export plants as it moves toward Georgia and South Carolina. gas futures NGc1 fell 3.7 cents, or 1.6%, to $2.325 per million British thermal units at 9:08 a.m. EDT (1308 GMT).
Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states was on track to fall to 84.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Tuesday, its lowest since August 2018, due to Sally-related shutdowns. The U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) said almost 0.8 bcfd, or 28%, of Gulf of Mexico gas production was shut-in on Tuesday.
With cooler weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would fall from 85.2 bcfd this week to 81.8 bcfd next week.
The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants, meanwhile, has averaged 5.3 bcfd so far in September. That was the most in a month since May and was up for a second month in a row for the first time since hitting a record 8.7 bcfd in February as global gas prices rise, making U.S. gas more attractive following months of U.S. cargo cancellations due to coronavirus demand destruction. LNG's export plant in Louisiana, however, has remained shut since Aug. 27 due to lingering power outages from Hurricane Laura. Some analysts say the plant could remain shut through mid October. ended
Week ended
Year ago Five-year
Sep 11
Sep 4
Sep 11
average
(Forecast)
(Actual)
Sep 11
U.S. natgas storage (bcf):
+70
+70
+82
+77
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year 10-Year
30-Year Norm
Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs
40
43
14
24
51 U.S. GFS CDDs
80
81
149
130
89 U.S. GFS TDDs
120
124
163
154
140
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week Next Week This Week
Five-Year
Last Year Average For
Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
88.4
86.4
86.6
93.3
79.7 U.S. Imports from Canada
5.8
5.9
6.6
7.8
7.9 U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1 Total U.S. Supply
94.2
92.3
93.2
100.0
87.7
U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.5
2.3 U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.0
5.8
6.1
5.6
4.5 U.S. LNG Exports
4.8
6.9
6.9
6.5
2.1 U.S. Commercial
4.8
4.9
5.3
4.7
4.7 U.S. Residential
4.0
4.2
4.9
3.8
3.7 U.S. Power Plant
34.3
33.6
28.7
35.8
32.0 U.S. Industrial
21.6
21.5
21.7
21.2
20.6 U.S. Plant Fuel
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.4 U.S. Pipe Distribution
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.9
1.9 U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1 Total U.S. Consumption
71.0
70.4
66.8
71.3
67.4 Total U.S. Demand
84.0
85.2
81.8
86.4
76.3
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
2.19
2.18
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
1.29
1.26
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
3.40
3.44
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL
1.07
1.18
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
1.92
1.95
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
1.25
1.38
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
2.57
2.65
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
1.50
1.59
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
20.00
20.50
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
18.50
20.75
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
31.50
29.50
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
33.42
32.00
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
34.25
33.25
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
37.25
36.00