Canada Conservatives buoyant over election, see boost in votes

By David Ljunggren and Randall Palmer
OTTAWA, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Canada's ruling Conservatives,
buoyed by polls showing they are starting to break away in the
run-up to the Oct. 19 election, predict they will do even better
than forecast given their past ability to beat polls that
underestimate voter support.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives, seeking a
rare fourth consecutive term, had 34 percent support in an Angus
Reid poll released on Thursday, compared with 27 percent support
for the rival Liberals and New Democrats.
For weeks polls had shown a three-way tie between the major
parties, raising the specter of political instability after the
election and market instability that could affect the Canadian
dollar, already sitting around 11-year lows.
Party insiders note the Conservatives have historically
captured about 3 percentage points more than polling numbers
heading into the ballot box.
Eric Grenier, of the poll-aggregating website
ThreeHundredEight.com, said that pattern, set in 2008 and 2011,
may not be repeated this time around, with voters suffering from
some fatigue after nearly 10 years of Harper.
"If you had to bet will he go over or under (the polling
number), I think over is probably the safer bet. Whether it will
be two or three points is something that's impossible to say,"
he said.
If the Conservatives do win 37 percent of the vote, they
would have a theoretical chance at winning a majority, an
outcome that seemed unlikely for much of the 11-week campaign.
Failing that, the party would win a reasonably strong minority
that would make it more difficult for the opposition parties to
justify bringing them down.
Two Conservative sources said the party planned to launch "a
wave of very hard-hitting ads" in the run-up to Canada's Oct. 12
Thanksgiving holiday, focusing on Liberal leader Justin Trudeau.
The Conservatives have consistently attacked the youthful
Trudeau, age 43, as not ready to lead Canada.
Conservative campaign spokesman Kory Teneycke declined to
comment when asked about polling patterns or the content of the
series of commercials the campaign shot on Wednesday.
"There will be ads on a variety of topics, some positive,
some which provide contrast," he said on Thursday.
An expansion of seats in the House of Commons to 338 from
308 may also boost the Conservatives, with many of the new seats
in areas where Conservative support is already healthy. Party
sources say they are confident the party will win at least 20 of
the new 30 seats.