By Allison Lampert and Randall Palmer
MONTREAL/OTTAWA, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Canada's tight
three-way election race may be turning into a two-party contest.
The left-leaning New Democrat Party (NDP), which had surged
into top spot after an unexpected May victory against the ruling
Conservatives in Alberta, has stumbled in national polls as
support in its stronghold of Quebec wanes.
The NDP, down from first to third place in national polls,
appears to have been hurt by its backing of Muslim women who
want to wear the face-covering veil, or niqab, during
citizenship ceremonies, while its plans to fund a universal
day-care proposal have been greeted with skepticism.
The NDP, historically Canada's most socially progressive
party, had looked federally electable for the first time ever,
buoyed by the Alberta win and a shift away from far-left
policies that had previously alienated voters.
But it has failed to distinguish itself from fellow
centre-left party the Liberals as the best alternative to the
nine-year-old government of Conservative Prime Minister Stephen
Harper.
The NDP has been seriously damaged, too, by the fallout from
a court ruling this month allowing women to wear the niqab
during the oath of citizenship. The party's decision last week
to come out in support of the veil has prompted a backlash,
especially in predominantly French-speaking Quebec, a fiercely
secular and electorally important province where many reject
overt displays of religion.
"Right now we are looking at an emerging two-horse race with
the New Democrats on the decline," pollster Nik Nanos said. He
released a poll on Wednesday that showed the Conservatives and
Liberals tied at 32 percent and the NDP trailing at 26 percent,
down from a high of 33 percent.
While the party could still bounce back, momentum is going
in the wrong direction, and there are just 19 days until the
election.
QUEBEC IS CRUCIAL
If the NDP decline continues, it potentially means a greater
share of the "anyone but Harper vote" for the Liberals. Harper,
whose government is appealing the court ruling, also stands to
gain among voters opposed to accommodating immigrants' customs,
pollsters said.
"While a majority of voters for every party supports the
requirement (of showing a woman's face), this could be just the
wedge issue the Tories have been looking for," pollster Ipsos
said in a report on Monday.
NDP leader Thomas Mulcair has dismissed questions about his
party's slide in the polls, saying the NDP's "support in Quebec
is at historic levels."
Quebec is crucial to the NDP's survival. It accounts for 23
percent of parliamentary seats, second only to Ontario. The
Conservatives hold just five Quebec seats while the NDP have 54.
NDP campaign spokesman Brad Lavigne said each of the three
parties have been at or below the NDP's current levels, and that
while NDP support has slipped in Quebec, it is still the
favorite choice in the province.
Still, the party cannot afford to lose any ground in Quebec,
given its lower standing in other regions of Canada, where the
Liberals and Conservatives hold more sway.
"What Mr. Mulcair and the NDP will be doing for the
remaining 19 days of this campaign is focusing the attention of
those in Quebec that the niqab is not the ballot question. The
ballot question is, 'Do you want Stephen Harper to have four
more years or do you want to defeat and replace him?'" Lavigne
said.
But the niqab controversy has caused divisions in the party.
Three NDP candidates broke with Mulcair on Tuesday, saying they
opposed the veil.
The controversy may prove to be the NDP's undoing in Quebec,
said Andre Drouin, the author of a "code of conduct" adopted by
the central Quebec town of Herouxville in 2007 that said
immigrants wanting to move there must not stone women to death
in public or burn them alive.
"I ardently hope that (Harper) wins with a majority," he
said. "It's about Canadian values."
Indeed, the Conservatives have gained in polls in swathes of
central and eastern Quebec amid the uproar over the veil issue.
The NDP polled as high as 47 percent in Quebec in early
September, a lead that helped to thrust it into first place
nationally. An Abacus poll of Quebec voters released on Monday,
however, showed its support had plunged to around 30 percent.
DAYCARE DOUBTS
The NDP has also failed to gain traction with one of its
main campaign pledges, universal daycare. The plan has been met
with both ambivalence and skepticism it can be done.
"Older folks who don't need it (childcare), and didn't have
it when they were raising their families, can get shirty about
having to pay for other people's kids," Ipsos pollster Darrell
Bricker said.
The NDP wants to give C$15 ($11.25) a day childcare to every
child who needs it. But with Canadian history littered with
calls for better daycare and failed attempts to create it, even
voters who like the idea aren't convinced it will work.
"I suspect no one believes it can actually be done," said
Niesa Silzer, an undecided voter in Calgary and mother of
11-month-old twin girls who says she likes the plan. "So it just
sounds like another election promise that will be broken."
The NDP's opponents say the plan would take eight years to
implement and have to be funded by tax increases or deficits,
but the NDP argues the universal daycare program in Quebec has
added women to the workforce and childcare jobs to the economy,
boosting government revenues in the longer term.