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The Week Ahead: 5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar

Economy May 14, 2017 05:39
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© Reuters. 5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar In The Week Ahead
 
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Investing.com - Key U.S. economic data in the week ahead could provide further evidence if the world’s largest economy is strong enough to withstand a rate hike as early as next month, with the Empire State and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys in focus.

Meanwhile, China is to release industrial production data amid recent signs of cooling in the world's second largest economy.

Elsewhere, the euro zone is to publish revised data on first-quarter economic growth as traders look for further signs on the strength of the region's economy and hints on when the European Central Bank will start withdrawing stimulus.

In the U.K., market participants will be looking ahead to reports on consumer prices, employment and retail sales for further indications on the continued effect that the Brexit decision is having on the economy.

Preliminary data on Japanese first-quarter growth will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of the five biggest events on the economic calendar that are most likely to affect the markets.

1. Empire State, Philly Fed Manufacturing for May

The New York Federal Reserve Bank is to publish the Empire State manufacturing survey for May at 8:30AM ET (12:30GMT) on Monday, amid expectations for a modest improvement to 7.0 from 5.2 in April.

That is followed by the Philly Fed's own manufacturing survey due at 8:30AM ET (12:30GMT) Thursday. Market analysts expect the index to tick down to 19.8 in May from 22.0 in the preceding month.

Besides the manufacturing surveys, this week's calendar also features U.S. data on building permits, housing starts, industrial production and weekly jobless claims.

Markets are currently pricing in around a 70% chance of a rate hike in June in the wake of last week's disappointing U.S. retail sales and inflation reports, according to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool.

Earnings from the likes of retailers such as Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), Target (NYSE:TGT), Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Gap (NYSE:GPS) and TJX (NYSE:TJX) are also on the radar this week, especially in light of last week's downbeat results from department store retailers like Macy's (NYSE:M) and Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN).

Headlines from Washington regarding President Donald Trump's health-care plan and tax reform will also be in focus.

2. April China Industrial Production

The China National Bureau of Statistics is to release data on April industrial production at 02:00GMT on Monday (10:00PM ET Sunday). Market analysts expect factory output to rise 7.1% last month, after increasing 7.6% in March.

The Asian nation will release fixed asset investment data and a report on retail sales at the same time.

Soft April inflation and trade data released last week underlined the view that China's economic expansion remains solid but is starting to moderate after a surprisingly strong start to the year.

3. Euro Zone Q1 GDP - Revised Reading

The euro zone will release revised first-quarter growth data at 09:00GMT (05:00AM ET) Tuesday. An initial estimate published earlier this month showed that the region's economy grew 0.5% in the three months ended March 31, accelerating from growth of 0.4% in the fourth-quarter.

Other data out of the euro zone this week include final inflation and consumer confidence figures.

In addition, market participants will be focusing on Tuesday's ZEW survey data on German economic sentiment to gauge confidence in the euro zone's largest economy.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi reiterated last week that the ECB is in no rush to raise interest rates or wind down its massive bond-buying program, warning that it is still too early to declare victory in its quest to boost inflation despite signs the bloc's economic recovery is strengthening.

4. U.K. April CPI, Employment & Retail Sales

The U.K. Office for National Statistics will release data on consumer price inflation for April at 08:30GMT (4:30AM ET) on Tuesday. Analysts expect consumer prices to rise 2.6%, after increasing 2.3% a month earlier.

At 08:30GMT (4:30AM ET) Wednesday, the ONS will publish the monthly jobs report. The claimant count change is expected to rise by 5,000 in April, with the jobless rate holding steady at 4.7%. Wage growth including bonuses is forecast to rise 2.4%.

On Thursday, the ONS will produce a report on April retail sales at 08:30GMT (4:30AM ET), with analysts expecting an increase of 1.0%, following a drop of 1.8% in the preceding month.

Recent data has pointed to signs that rising inflation, caused in part by the pound's post-Brexit vote tumble, is crimping spending by consumers, the main drivers of the economy, just as the country is set to start EU divorce negotiations.

5. Japan Preliminary First-Quarter GDP

Japan will publish preliminary first-quarter economic growth data at 23:50GMT (7:50PM ET) on Wednesday. The report is expected to reveal that Japan's economy expanded by 0.4% in the first three months of the year, compared to growth of 0.3% in the preceding three-month period.

The economy is expected to show growth at an annualized rate of 1.7% in the first quarter, which would be the fastest growth rate since the second quarter of 2016.

Private consumption, which accounts for roughly 60% of gross domestic product, was seen rising 0.4% in the first quarter, after it showed no growth in the October-December period.

In addition to the GDP report, Japan is also slated to produce data on core machinery orders, which is looked at as a good indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months.

Stay up-to-date on all of this week's economic events by visiting: http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

The Week Ahead: 5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar
 

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