By Ketki Saxena
Investing.com -- The Canadian dollar weakened against the US dollar to its lowest level in nearly three weeks as investor sentiment turned risk off, and hawkish minutes from the Federal Reserve boosted the safe-haven US Dollar.
The minutes released today shoewd that Federal Reserve policymakers almost unanimously agreed to resume rate hikes after pausing them during their June gathering. The decision was driven by concerns over an overly robust labor market and inflation rates that they deemed excessively high.
Market are expecting two quarter-point rate increases from the Fed this year - one each in Q3 and Q4 before reaching peak rate. Meanwhile, market pricing indicates that Bank of Canada (BoC) is only expected to implement one such hike in Q3, with the rate differential posing a headwind to the loonie.
The loonie did manage to find some support as crude oil prices reduced their price gap with Brent, following a post-long weekend boost supply cuts announced by Saudi Arabia and Russia earlier this week.
On a technical level for the pair, analysts at FX Street note, "On the daily chart, the USD/CAD appears neutral to bullish in the short term. Despite standing in negative territory, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are gaining momentum, suggesting that the buyers are gearing up for another upwards leg."
"Support Levels to watch: 1.2345 (20-day Simple Moving Average), 1.2320, 1.3190."
"Resistance Levels to watch: 1.3300, 1.3320, 1.3350."
On a fundamental level for the pair, analysts at MUFG re suggests that historically, the CAD tends to show a tendency for weakening during US recessionary periods due to strong economic ties between both nations. As expectations grow for weaker growth within the US and Canada itself, it could further intensify downward pressure on the lonie.
MUFG analysts contend that the CAD may have reached its peak this cycle, indicating a potential sustained reversal to the CAD's recent rally.