The question of President Biden's candidacy in the upcoming election has been a hot topic, particularly after his performance in the first debate. In notes this week, analysts at Strategas and Evercore ISI provided their thoughts.
According to Strategas, Biden "failed to achieve his objectives" during the debate, worsening his electoral standing. Despite this, their analysis points to Biden remaining the Democratic nominee, albeit with some uncertainty.
Strategas analysts have engaged extensively with campaign strategists, news articles, clients, and election rules. Their research suggests that, although surprising, Biden is likely to stay on the ticket.
However, they acknowledge that unexpected events can force a candidate off a ticket swiftly. They note there is a real possibility that the Biden family might decide to maximize his dignity and legacy by stepping aside.
If Biden were to leave the race, Strategas says the Democratic Party would likely unify to rally around him before choosing a successor. For now, the firm notes that Biden's close supporters advocate for him to remain in the race, adopting a "Rocky" narrative, emphasizing resilience and recovery after setbacks.
Conversely, the firm says that some argue that Biden's inner circle may be obscuring the extent of his decline to maintain their power, potentially risking a Trump resurgence. These discussions remind analysts of the film "Dave," highlighting the limits of sidelining the vice president.
Meanwhile, Evercore ISI analysts noted a significant shift in dynamics."We now think the probability that President Biden withdraws from the race in the coming days has risen above 60%," they state.
The critical reactions from pundits and the press have been expected, but more surprising are the statements from Biden's staunch allies, according to the firm.
They note that Nancy Pelosi and Jim Clyburn publicly acknowledged that "there are legitimate questions to be answered following the debate." Some senior Democrats have been more explicit, suggesting the party needs new leadership.
Grassroots fundraising remains robust, but top donors have become increasingly negative, continues Evercore. Despite the Biden inner circle's stance that this decision is not for the press or fundraisers to make, Evercore says the lack of a clear recovery plan is evident.
With more damaging poll results anticipated, Evercore ISI analysts highlight that "it is becoming clearer that they, too, don't have a plan to recover."
Biden's upcoming interview with ABC is unlikely to reverse the growing sentiment within the party, they add.