* Chinese online posts show surging interest in franchise
* First Disney 'Star Wars' film opens in China on Jan. 9
* China key if Disney film to join top-grossing movies
* Early 'Star Wars' movies first shown in theatres this year
* Disney marketing blitz featured Great Wall, China pop star
By Adam Jourdan and Lisa Richwine
SHANGHAI/LOS ANGELES, Dec 23 (Reuters) - After a mammoth
marketing campaign, growing online chatter in China around "Star
Wars: The Force Awakens" suggests the latest installment of the
hit franchise has a shot at breaking box office records in the
world's second-largest movie market.
China is crucial if Walt Disney Co's DIS.N first foray
into the world of Jedi knights is to earn a spot among the
top-grossing films of all time. The movie, the seventh in a near
40-year-old franchise, surged past "Jurassic World" to set a
global opening weekend record of $529 million.
Disney has had to work hard for its "Star Wars" buzz in
China. Though the franchise launched in 1977 - a year after the
end of the Cultural Revolution and the death of China's founding
leader Mao Zedong - the original films weren't shown in movie
theatres until this June.
But after promotions featuring everything from 500 model
stormtroopers on the Great Wall to a pop star dubbed China's
answer to Justin Bieber, a Reuters analysis of posts on popular
microblog Sina Weibo shows "Star Wars" has been mentioned around
700,000 times since the start of December, outpacing other big
hit Hollywood releases in China this year.
"I roughly know the story plot but I have never seen any of
the films in the series before," admitted Yao Yiyun, 22, a
computer programming student in Shanghai. "When it comes out at
the cinemas I want to see it though, especially because I like
science fiction."
Online chatter won't guarantee box office success in China
for the film, which has a red-carpet premiere in Shanghai on
Sunday and goes on general release in the mainland on Jan. 9.
But curiosity among the world's biggest online community
could help the film rival smash hits like action movie "Furious
7", the latest in a series long popular with Chinese viewers
that took over $180 million in its opening weekend in China.
Over a comparable period in its pre-release schedule,
"Furious 7" had racked up 230,000 Weibo hits, before soaring to
over 300,000 hits in a single day when it opened this year.
Jeff Bock, senior box office analyst at Exhibitor Relations
Co, predicts "The Force Awakens" will take in some $100 million
during its first weekend in China. Others forecast more.
"The movie is going to do well regardless of its take here,"
said Ben Cavender, Shanghai-based principal of China Market
Research Group. "But if it wants to target global records then
how it does in China is going to be critical."
A GALAXY FAR, FAR AWAY
In 2005, the previous Star Wars installment was
comparatively unknown in China and brought in just $9 million in
ticket sales. But moviegoing has become hugely popular in the
meantime, with the Chinese box office set to hit almost $9
billion in 2019 from $5 billion this year, according to PwC,
fast catching up with the United States.
Piracy, once the scourge of Hollywood in China, is also not
as rampant as it once was, as increasingly active Chinese film
companies have pressured the government to crack down.
The film's delayed release date may also help, as Chinese
viewers see the success abroad first.
"(Chinese moviegoers) are very attuned to what happens in
the rest of the world," said Greg Foster, chief executive of
cinema group IMAX Corp IMAX.N , which saw the film take in $48
million in its theatres worldwide in its opening weekend.
Disney, for its part, has pulled out the stops. As well as
running ads featuring Chinese pop star Lu Han as an honorary
Jedi "ambassador" for the movie and making use of the of the
iconic Great Wall, it has reconfigured posters to enhance the
fighter jets popular with local viewers.
But while Disney has been beefing up merchandising ties with
China, it still has work to do if "Star Wars" is to truly take
root in the country ahead of future installments, said Chen Tao,
the head of China fan site StarWarsChina.com. The site expects
the film to take around $150 million in China.
"In the United States there are 'Star Wars' comics, games
and other products released all the time - helping create an
ardent fan base," he said.
"We don't really have this in China, meaning moviegoers lack
those close ties with the series. This could lower its impact."
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GRAPHIC: Star Wars chatter grows in China http://reut.rs/1PjV1oQ
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