Bitcoin's recent surge to $35,000 has been largely influenced by macroeconomic factors rather than the anticipation of spot ETF approval, according to QCP Capital. The firm attributed the rally to a lower-than-expected Treasury supply in Q1 and a dovish stance from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which have led to decreased bond yields and bullish implications for risk assets like Bitcoin.
The cryptocurrency reached its peak at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $35,912 before experiencing a pullback. Despite this rise, QCP Capital warned that the broader macroeconomic environment remains largely unchanged, which could question the sustainability of this rally in sparking a long-term global uptrend in equities and bonds.
In addition to these factors, QCP Capital pointed out heightened activity in the Bitcoin derivatives market. This suggests traders are preparing for a significant move contingent on spot ETF approval. However, the firm emphasized that macroeconomic indicators such as bond yields exert more influence over Bitcoin than ETF speculation.
The firm also noted the impact of bond market fluctuations on investor risk sentiment and thereby influencing the crypto market. Particularly, they highlighted the 30-year Treasury yield reaching a 16-year high above 5%.
As of now, Bitcoin is priced at $34,235 and risks breaking its established uptrend channel. Meanwhile, traders are observing high derivative indicators while awaiting spot ETF approval that could further boost Bitcoin's rising spot price.
Imminent events such as earnings reports from Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and the release of non-farm payroll data could trigger expected implied volatility and high call option premiums. However, significant regulatory actions led by SEC Chair Gary Gensler would be required to push the market below the $32K support level.
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