The Bank of England (BoE) has upheld its 5.25% interest rate, deviating from its tradition of rate increases in a move that mirrors the actions of the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. The decision was made by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in a 6-3 split, marking the second hold after a series of 14 hikes initiated since late 2021 to combat inflation.
Despite the pause, the BoE has signaled an extended period of monetary tightening due to persistent inflationary pressures on UK businesses. This comes as the bank continues to use interest rates as a tool against inflation, yet it remains below its 2% target. Three dissenters within the MPC advocated for a rise to 5.5%, indicating differing views on the ideal rate.
Governor Andrew Bailey reaffirmed the effectiveness of higher rates in reducing inflation, dismissing premature discussions of rate cuts. He confirmed that while government projections suggest a halving of inflation by year-end, reaching the 2% target will take longer than anticipated.
The Q3 insolvency report highlighted the impact of these inflationary pressures, citing the highest level of corporate insolvency in over two decades. Critics argue that the BoE's aggressive response to inflation has resulted in these high rates and is calling for significant rate reductions.
Further complicating matters, Q4 Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation is forecasted at 4.6%, straying from the Chancellor's projected 5.4%. Inflation is now expected to remain above 2% until Q4 of 2025.
In addition to these challenges, the BoE foresees a stagnation in GDP growth for four consecutive quarters starting from March next year. Growth rates are predicted to be at 0.6% for each of the last two quarters of 2023, falling to 0.2% in Q1 of 2024, based on the timeline for interest rate reductions. This forecast indicates a slowing economy alongside persistent inflation, presenting a complex scenario for the BoE and its monetary policy decisions moving forward.
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