Quiver Quantitative - US new-home construction experienced a significant drop at the beginning of the year, marking the most substantial decline since the pandemic began, which signals a slow recovery in the housing market. The construction of residential starts decreased by 14.8% to a 1.3 million annualized rate, with multi-family home construction seeing a steep decline of over 35%, and a slowdown in single-family groundbreakings.
Despite a downward trend in mortgage rates towards the end of the previous year, the overall decline in construction, especially in multi-family homes, suggests buyers are awaiting further reductions in mortgage rates. Building permits also decreased, indicating future construction might slow down. The housing market faces challenges in sustaining recovery due to still-high mortgage rates, though there's builder optimism for demand improvement with potential borrowing cost declines.
Market Overview: -Significant drop in US new-home construction at the start of the year. -Multi-family home construction plummeted over 35%; single-family starts also decreased. -Building permits declined, with a notable fall in multifamily authorizations.
Market Overview: -Residential starts fell to a 1.3 million annualized rate, the slowest in five months. -Single-family home completions at their lowest since May 2020. -High mortgage rates near 7% are hindering the housing market's recovery. -Builders anticipate demand boost from potential mortgage rate declines. -Inventory of new houses remains high, suggesting builder caution.
Looking Ahead: -Expectation of a temporary decline in construction activity, with potential recovery in spring. -A clearer picture of the Federal Reserve's rate path could influence the housing market. -Existing-home sales figures to be released on Feb. 22, providing insight into the resale market. -Inflation remains a concern with producer prices rising more than forecasted in January.
The US housing market's start to the year highlights the challenges faced by potential buyers and builders, with a significant decline in new-home construction and ongoing high mortgage rates. The cautious optimism among builders, driven by the expectation of lower borrowing costs, may support a gradual recovery.
However, the elevated new house inventory and the need for further mortgage rate decreases suggest that the path to a robust housing market recovery will be slow. The upcoming resale market data and developments in inflation will be critical to watch for future market directions.
This article was originally published on Quiver Quantitative