Quiver Quantitative - Amid continuous inflationary pressures and a sturdy US economy, the Federal Reserve may find itself compelled to elevate interest rates, posits Pacific Investment Management Co.’s (Pimco) Richard Clarida. In his discourse with Tom Keene at Bloomberg's 'Future of Fixed Income' symposium in New York, Clarida, the erstwhile vice chair of the Fed, indicated that the progress in combatting inflation has plateaued since summer. He highlighted the absence of slack in the labor market but emphasized the silver lining: the anchoring of anticipated inflation within reasonable boundaries.
Escalating Treasury yields in recent times have spurred investors to recalibrate their predictions regarding imminent interest rate hikes by the central bank. Current swaps trading data, as per Bloomberg, reveals a mere 32% probability of an additional 25 basis point increment during the Fed's January assembly. Clarida ascribed the Treasury market's recent selloff, which pushed the 10-year yield beyond 5% (a pinnacle unseen since 2007), to an amalgam of factors. These encompass bond supply, the cessation of quantitative easing, and Fed Chair Jay Powell's advocacy for prolonged higher rates.
Clarida reiterated Powell's unwavering commitment to maintaining higher rates, and the consensus he's garnered from his committee. The protraction of bond yields at present thresholds, Clarida asserts, would invariably imprint its impact on the nation's economic performance. Nevertheless, he also underscored the dynamic nature of the monetary policy's transmission to the broader economy, highlighting the corporate trend of terming out debt and consumers securing favorable 30-year fixed rates.
Delving into prospective challenges for the central bank, Clarida emphasized the impending decision regarding the commencement of interest rate reductions. He painted a scenario wherein the Fed, under Powell's leadership, may contemplate rate cuts even if inflation hasn't retracted to the 2% benchmark. On the topic of the dollar's recent vigor, he posited its eventual return to equilibrium levels once the Fed undertakes rate adjustments.
This article was originally published on Quiver Quantitative