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Stocks climb as investors hope Trump delivers on trade

Published 2019-11-12, 11:29 a/m
Updated 2019-11-12, 12:22 p/m
© Reuters.  Stocks climb as investors hope Trump delivers on trade

* Market awaits Trump speech for trade deal news

* Reports Trump to delay auto tariffs on EU for 6 months

* Oil rises further above $62 on trade deal optimism

* Dollar lifted by cautious optimism

By Herbert Lash

NEW YORK, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Equity markets and government bond yields rose on Tuesday as investors awaited a speech by U.S. President Donald Trump on U.S. trade policy, in which he is expected to discuss talks with China and a tariff decision on European automakers.

Hopes for the speech were two-fold. First, that there would be reassurances the China talks were progressing and second, that there would be a nod to overnight reports that a decision on European car tariffs would be delayed another six months. technology shares helped Wall Street hit fresh record highs while European shares edged back toward four-year highs .EU . MSCI's gauge of worldwide equity performance .MIWD00000PUS climbed to almost 1% shy of a record peak set in January 2018.

A steepening bond market yield curves also signaled increasing confidence that a recession would be avoided.

Trade-sensitive chipmakers helped pushed Europe's STOXX 600 up 0.53% as the Philadelphia semiconductor index .SOX rose 0.89%. .N

Overnight in Asia, MSCI's broadest measure of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS climbed 0.5% while Japan's Nikkei .N225 ended 0.8% higher.

While Trump's speech could deliver the unexpected, any downside is likely to be limited, said Candice Bangsund, a global asset allocation strategist at Fiera Capital in Montreal.

If we do see some near-term weakness, that's a good opportunity to get back into the market," Bangsund said.

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"Longer-term we're confident that equities are going to not only post positive results but also outperform fixed income in the coming year."

Remarks by Trump over the weekend, that there had been incorrect reporting about U.S. willingness to lift tariffs on China, sent markets lower on Monday. were also anxious about Hong Kong after a violent escalation of protests knocked 3% off the key Hang Seng index .HSI and nearly 2% off Asia-exposed banks HSBC HSBA.L and StanChart STAN.L in recent days.

Hong Kong's embattled leader Carrie Lam on Tuesday said protesters who were trying to "paralyze" the city were extremely selfish and hoped all universities and schools would urge students not to participate in violence.

Bond markets were also stirring again.

A partial holiday in the United States had closed the Treasury market on Monday but there was an early milestone on Tuesday as the gap between short-term 3-month and longer-term 10-year yields hit the widest level of the year so far.

That widening, or steepening of the 'curve' as it is also known, adds to signs that the fears that took hold earlier in the year that the country was heading into recession, were receding again.

"Recession fears are misplaced. We are not ripe for an extended bear market," Bangsund said.

Treasury yields on 10-year notes US10YT=RR were 1.9417%, having slipped from last week's three-month top of 1.97%. European yields were also a touch higher.

In currency markets, the dollar was moving higher against most currencies ahead of Trump's trade speech.

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The dollar index .DXY rose 0.15%, with the euro EUR= down 0.18% to $1.1012. The Japanese yen JPY= weakened 0.08% versus the greenback at 109.16 per dollar.

Gold, meanwhile, looked to be heading for a third day of declines, touching its lowest since early August at $1,447.89 per ounce XAU= at one point before steadying around $1,451.

U.S. crude CLc1 gained 31 cents to $57.17 a barrel, while Brent crude LCOc1 futures added 25 cents to $62.43.

https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4 Asia-Pacific valuations

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Latest comments

There will not be a deal until 2020. The Fed will not cut until Q2 2020, and Trump knows this. Holding rates will lead to another global market correction. Trump will accept a significant drop in the indices to try and hurt China further. Time to liquidate US equities...
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