The economy has demonstrated a surprising resilience, despite the Federal Reserve's strategy to contain inflation by raising rates above 5.25 percent. This move was initially anticipated to lead to a recession, however, retail sales have surpassed expectations. The unpredictability of these economic trends can be attributed to the unique impact of COVID-19 on commerce and significant fiscal policy changes made by the Trump and Biden administrations in response to the pandemic.
Over the past three years, economists' predictions on inflation and growth have consistently missed the mark. They initially thought the pandemic-induced inflation would be fleeting, but it has lasted for 30 uninterrupted months. This stubbornness of inflation is in part due to increased consumer spending from savings accumulated during pandemic aid and lockdown periods.
The situation was further complicated following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which led to a spike in oil prices. Despite high unemployment rates, inflation soared, contradicting traditional economic models.
Economic growth was also consistently underestimated by economists. Despite elevated interest rates making loans more expensive, strong consumer spending indicated faster-than-expected growth. The lack of real-time data on consumer savings and the ongoing allocation of fiscal stimulus funds played a role in this underestimation.
These administrations injected over $4.6 trillion into the economy as recovery and stimulus funds, along with extra capital for infrastructure investment and clean energy development projects.
Although inflation has already dropped to 3.7 percent in September from a peak of about 9 percent, it remains higher than the pre-pandemic level of 2 percent. Economists are now investigating whether it's feasible for inflation to slow down without a corresponding decrease in growth. Given the strength of the economy, it might be necessary to keep interest rates elevated for a longer duration.
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