Proactive Investors - Novo Nordisk (CSE:NOVOb) (NYSE:NVO) is at risk of missing first-quarter consensus estimates, due in part to the slow uptake of its flagship Wegovy drug in the US, Jefferies analysts have warned.
As per the bank, sales over the first quarter will likely sit at 59.1 billion Danish Krone, 9% lower than consensus estimates of 64.7 billion Danish Krone.
This follows a wider slowdown in the market for GPL-1-based diabetes drugs in the US, coupled with the absence of an uptick in prescription data for Novo’s Wegovy since supply was increased in February.
“We acknowledge limited visibility on GLP-1 supply dynamics in ex-US markets, but this is unlikely to offset the US trends,” analysts wrote in a note.
Pre-tax earnings could well miss consensus estimates too as a result, with Jefferies guiding for 24.9 billion Danish Krone, against wider expectations of 29.5 billion Danish Krone.
Alongside this, Jefferies highlighted significant manufacturing hurdles relating to Novo’s amycretin weight loss treatment, signalling issues in meeting peak future sales projections.
Jefferies retained an ‘Underperform’ rating on Novo, alongside a share price target of 530 Danish Krone - down 41% on Wednesday’s close.
Per-share earnings estimates for 2024 and 2025 were also cut, by 2% and 4% respectively to 22.53 Danish Krone and 27.75 Danish Krone.