Quiver Quantitative - The landscape of car ownership in the U.S. is undergoing a significant shift, with rising insurance costs emerging as a new challenge for buyers. Darin Davis, a real estate agent from Dallas, exemplifies this trend as he faced nearly doubled insurance rates on his new Cadillac XT4 (GM). While car prices are finally easing after the pandemic-induced surge, buyers like Davis are now grappling with soaring auto insurance rates. These increased rates, which can account for more than a quarter of the total cost of owning a vehicle, are driven by factors such as the high costs of repairing advanced vehicles and more frequent storm damage due to climate change. This juxtaposition of decreasing car prices but increasing insurance rates highlights an evolving pain point in the U.S. economy, particularly as the Federal Reserve strives to manage overall inflation.
The Labor Department reports a 3.5% rise in the Consumer Price Index last month from a year earlier, with auto insurance costs jumping a striking 22.2% in the same period. In contrast, new vehicle prices slightly declined by 0.1%, and used prices dropped by 2.2%. Dealers are offering more incentives, helping reduce upfront costs, but the burden of high insurance rates is becoming an increasingly significant factor in car-buying decisions, particularly for budget-conscious consumers. Sean Tucker from Kelley Blue Book notes an emerging trend where potential buyers are either declining or returning vehicles due to unaffordable insurance costs, a concern that's now prominent enough to warrant inclusion in their buying tips.
Market Overview: -Car prices in the U.S. show signs of moderation after pandemic-induced surges. -However, rising auto insurance rates threaten to offset some of the cost relief for consumers.
Key Points: -Factors including supply chain improvements and increased competition among dealers contribute to falling car prices. -Rising repair costs, severe weather events, and complex vehicle technology drive insurance rate hikes. -Insurance costs are on track to become a larger portion of the total cost of car ownership.
Looking Ahead: -The Federal Reserve grapples with the challenge of inflation pockets like auto insurance amidst broader price moderation. -Consumers, especially budget-conscious buyers, may delay car purchases due to rising insurance costs. -Car manufacturers' use of new production techniques like gigacasting could further inflate repair costs and insurance rates.
The rise in auto insurance rates varies across the country, influenced by local repair costs and the potential for weather-related damage. Insurify reports that the average cost for full auto coverage in the U.S. rose by 24% last year, averaging just over $182 a month. With 63% of drivers witnessing rate increases in 2023, Insurify predicts a further 7% rise in 2024. However, this figure might even increase further, according to Jessica Edmondson from Insurify, who notes significant activity in the first quarter that could push rates higher.
The surge in insurance costs is reshaping the total cost of vehicle ownership, which includes maintenance, taxes, depreciation, fuel, and insurance. According to Kelley Blue Book, insurance's share of this total cost for compact cars and SUVs is expected to increase significantly by 2024. Factors fueling this trend include a higher rate of cars being totaled, pandemic-induced production disruptions leading to quality issues, mechanic shortages, and the increasing electronic complexity of cars.
Kristin Dziczek from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago highlights that even electric cars, which are on average 30% more expensive, contribute to this trend. Innovative production methods like Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)'s gigacasting, while reducing production costs, can result in higher repair costs in the event of accidents. This shift in production strategies, being adopted by others like Cadillac, further adds to the insurance burden for car owners.
This article was originally published on Quiver Quantitative