U.S. farmers' acreage plans not set in stone as corn price drops

By Mark Weinraub
WASHINGTON, March 31 (Reuters) - U.S. farmers could plant
more soybean acres than suggested in the government's acreage
forecast issued on Thursday as recent gains in the futures
market tempted them to alter their corn-heavy seeding plans,
growers and analysts said.
The U.S. Agriculture Department report showed farmers intend
to plant 93.601 million acres of corn this spring, the third
most since 1944. That forecast raised the prospect
of adding more supplies to an already huge stockpile, sending
corn prices into a tailspin and causing growers to question
their seeding choices.
"That might make a difference," said Art Bunting, a farmer
in Illinois who had planned on devoting 60 percent of his acres
to corn and 40 percent to soybeans. "We might have to re-think
what we are going to do. It might change some minds."
Bunting said the sell-off made him consider switching two of
his 80-acre fields to soybeans from corn.
The USDA's prospective plantings report, which also forecast
soybean acreage dipping 0.5 percent to 82.236 million acres,
surveys farmers during the first two weeks of March. That leaves
most growers with a month before they begin to put seeds in the
ground.
Chicago Board of Trade November soybean futures SX6 , which
track the crop that farmers will plant in the weeks ahead, rose
1.9 percent during the last two weeks of March, piquing farmers'
interest after they finished their acreage surveys for the
government. That compares with a 4.9 percent drop in the CBOT
December corn contract CZ6 .
But a March soy rally has not always enticed farmers to
boost their soybean acreage.
During the last 40 years, when soybean prices have posted
gains that outperformed corn over the last two weeks of March,
final soybean acreage has fallen an average of 615,615 acres
from the USDA's prospective plantings forecast.
In the years when soybeans have posted last-half March gains
greater than this year's rally, soy acreage has declined an
average of 377,462 acres from the USDA's outlook.
This year might be different, as the weak price environment
has farmers facing steep losses for the crops they have yet to
plant. Amid the poor profit prospects, many growers have delayed
fertilizing their designated corn fields in a bid to cut costs.
"Going forward, that corn number is going to change," said
Brian Hoops, analyst at Midwest Market Solutions. "I just got
off the phone with an Iowa farmer. He and his brother don't have
any anhydrous (fertilizer applied ahead of corn planting) down
and are definitely looking to switch to soybeans."