Sept 25 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held near a three-week low on Wednesday on expectations power generators will burn less gas next week as the weather moderates with the coming of autumn and homes and businesses turn down their air conditioners.
Analysts, however, said demand should start to recover as soon as people turn on their heaters and exports rise.
On its second to last day as the front-month, gas futures NGc1 for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.1 cents to settle at $2.502 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since Sept. 6.
That puts the front-month down for a seventh straight session for the first time since December 2015.
Futures for November, which will soon be the front-month, were down about 1 cent to $2.52 per mmBtu.
Meteorologists forecast temperatures over the next two weeks would be colder than normal over the northwestern half to the country and warmer in the southeastern half. Traders said this should reduce heating demand without lifting the need for air conditioning.
Data provider Refinitiv projected gas demand in the lower 48 U.S. states would average 83.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week and next as cooling demand is slowly replaced by heating demand.
Those demand forecasts include exports, which analysts said would likely rise as more gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and pipelines to Mexico.
Gas flows to the LNG plants held at 6.2 bcfd for a second day on Tuesday, up from a low of 5.7 bcfd last week following the shutdown of Dominion Energy Inc's D.N Cove Point in Maryland for planned maintenance, according to Refinitiv data. projected flows to LNG terminals could rise to a near record high of 6.6 bcfd by the end of next week.
Exports to Mexico rose to 5.3 bcfd on Tuesday from a seven-week low of 4.9 bcfd on Monday. That compares with a record high of 5.9 bcfd last week after gas started moving through the 2.6-bcfd Valley Crossing pipeline from Texas. said pipeline flows to Mexico should return to record levels soon now that Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI) Inc's KMI.N Permian Express pipe in Texas entered service. said utilities likely added 89 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Sept. 20, up from an injection of 51 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2014-18) average build of 74 bcf for the period. EIA/GAS
If correct, the increase would boost stockpiles to 3.192 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 1.8% below the five-year average of 3.252 tcf for this time of year.
The amount of gas in inventory has remained below the five-year average since September 2017. It fell as much as 33% below that in March 2019. But with production near a record high, analysts said, stockpiles should reach a near-normal 3.7 tcf by the end of summer injection season on Oct. 31. NGAS/POLL
Gas production in the lower 48 states fell to 92.0 bcfd on Tuesday due to small declines in several states, down from 92.6 bcfd on Monday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an all-time daily high of 93.0 bcfd on Aug. 19.
Week ended
Year ago Five-year
ended
Sep 20
average
20(Forecas Sep 13
Sep 20
(Actual)
U.S. natgas storage (bcf):
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current
Prior
Prior
10-Year
30-Year
Norm U.S. GFS HDDs
77 U.S. GFS CDDs
68 U.S. GFS TDDs
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Next Week This week Five-Yea
last year
Average
Month U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
75.2 U.S. Imports from Canada
7.7 U.S. LNG Imports
0.1 Total U.S. Supply
U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada
2.2 U.S. Exports to Mexico
3.8 U.S. LNG Exports
1.1 U.S. Commercial
4.8 U.S. Residential
3.8 U.S. Power Plant
29.9 U.S. Industrial
20.2 U.S. Plant Fuel
4.6 U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.0 U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1 Total U.S. Consumption
65.4 Total U.S. Demand
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Current
Prior
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Current
Prior
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
22.25
20.75
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
29.50
28.56
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
146.75
95.67
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
30.19
43.50
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
26.75
45.75
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
58.50
53.75