Sept 17 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slipped on Tuesday from the prior session's five-month high as gas followed the oil market lower after Saudi Arabia said its oil facilities would return to full service in two to three weeks. O/R
On Monday, oil futures jumped almost 15% following a weekend attack on Saudi oil facilities that halved the kingdom's production. After the Saudi statement on Tuesday, crude futures dropped around 5%.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 1.5 cents, or 0.6%, to $2.666 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 10:07 a.m. EDT (1407 GMT). On Monday, the contract closed at its highest since April 10.
The contract started to decline after getting to within a penny of but failing to break above the 200-day moving average, a key point of technical resistance. The front-month has traded below the 200-day average since January.
Despite the decline, the front-month remained up more than 31% over a recent three-year low of $2.029 per mmBtu on Aug. 5, keeping it in overbought territory for an 11th consecutive day for the first time since December 2016.
Even though temperatures were forecast to remain at above-normal levels through the end of September, the weather is still cooling with the coming of autumn.
Data provider Refinitiv projected demand in the lower 48 U.S. states would slip to 82.4 billion cubic feet per day next week from 85.2 bcfd this week as power generators burn less fuel as consumers turn down their air conditioners.
The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals, meanwhile, was rising toward new records.
Gas flows to LNG export plants rose to a two-week high of 6.7 bcfd on Monday after Train 5 at Cheniere Energy Inc's LNG.A Sabine Pass terminal in Louisiana returned to service from planned maintenance, up from an average of 6.1 bcfd last week, according to Refinitiv data.
In two weeks, Refinitiv projected, flows to U.S. LNG terminals could rise to a record 7.0 bcfd.
Analysts said utilities likely added 84 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Sept. 13. That compares with an injection of 84 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2014-18) average build of 82 bcf for the period. EIA/GAS
If correct, last week's addition would boost stockpiles to 3.103 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 2.4% below the five-year average of 3.178 tcf for this time of year.
The amount of gas in inventory has remained below the five-year average since September 2017. It fell as much as 33% below that average in March 2019. But with production near a record high, analysts said, stockpiles should reach a near-normal 3.7 tcf by the end of the summer injection season on Oct. 31. NGAS/POLL
Gas production in the lower 48 states rose to 92.6 bcfd on Monday, up from an average of 91.7 bcfd last week, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an all-time daily high of 93.0 bcfd on Aug. 19.
Week ended
Year ago Five-year
ended
Sep 13
average
13(Forecas Sep 6
Sep 13
(Actual)
U.S. natgas storage (bcf):
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current
Prior
Prior
10-Year
30-Year
Norm U.S. GFS HDDs
51 U.S. GFS CDDs
89 U.S. GFS TDDs
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Next Week This week Five-Yea
last year
Average
Month U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
75.2 U.S. Imports from Canada
7.7 U.S. LNG Imports
0.1 Total U.S. Supply
U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada
2.2 U.S. Exports to Mexico
3.8 U.S. LNG Exports
1.1 U.S. Commercial
4.8 U.S. Residential
3.8 U.S. Power Plant
29.9 U.S. Industrial
20.2 U.S. Plant Fuel
4.6 U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.0 U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1 Total U.S. Consumption
65.4 Total U.S. Demand
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Current
Prior
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Current
Prior
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
24.50
24.25
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
38.75
42.55
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
33.75
48.00
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
25.50
28.50
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
32.50
33.75
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
37.25
38.25