Sept 26 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell to a three-week low on Thursday following the release of a federal report showing a bigger-than-expected storage build.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 102 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Sept. 20.
That was well above the 89-bcf build that analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an injection of 51 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2014-18) average build of 74 bcf for the period. EIA/GAS
The increase boosted stockpiles to 3.205 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 1.4% below the five-year average of 3.252 tcf for this time of year.
The amount of gas in inventory has remained below the five-year average since September 2017. It fell as much as 33% below that in March 2019. But with production near a record high, analysts said stockpiles should reach a near-normal 3.7 tcf by the end of summer injection season on Oct. 31. NGAS/POLL
On its last day as the front-month, gas futures NGc1 for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 7.4 cents, or 3%, to settle at $2.428 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since Sept. 3.
That put the contract down for an eighth day in a row for the first time since January 2012.
Futures for November, which will soon be the front-month, were down about 8 cents at $2.44 per mmBtu. Earlier in the day, the premium of the November over October fell to a record low of under one penny.
Meteorologists forecast temperatures next week would be colder than normal over much of the northern half of the country and warmer in the southern half. Traders said that should boost heating demand in the North and keep cooling demand high in the South.
Data provider Refinitiv projected gas demand in the lower 48 U.S. states would average around 83.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week and next as heating use slowly replaces air conditioning.
Those demand forecasts include exports, which analysts said would likely rise as more gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and pipelines to Mexico.
Gas flows to the LNG plants rose to 6.4 bcfd on Wednesday, up from a low of 5.7 bcfd last week following the shutdown of Dominion Energy Inc's D.N Cove Point in Maryland for planned maintenance, according to Refinitiv data. Point remains shut. The extra gas is flowing to other terminals like Freeport LNG's Freeport plant in Texas and Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass in Louisiana.
Refinitiv projected flows to LNG terminals could rise to a near record high of 6.5 bcfd by the end of next week.
Exports to Mexico rose to 5.5 bcfd on Wednesday, up from 5.3 bcfd on Tuesday. That compares with a record high of 5.9 bcfd last week after gas started moving through the 2.6-bcfd Valley Crossing pipeline from Texas. said pipeline flows to Mexico should top those record levels soon now that Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI) Inc's KMI.N Permian Express pipe in Texas entered service. production in the lower 48 states, meanwhile, rose to 92.4 bcfd on Wednesday from 92.0 bcfd on Tuesday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an all-time daily high of 93.0 bcfd on Aug. 19.
Week ended
Year ago Five-year
ended
Sep 20
average
20(Actual) Sep 13
Sep 20
(Actual)
U.S. natgas storage (bcf):
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current
Prior
Prior
10-Year
30-Year
Norm U.S. GFS HDDs
80 U.S. GFS CDDs
66 U.S. GFS TDDs
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Next Week This week Five-Yea
last year
Average
Month U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
75.2 U.S. Imports from Canada
7.7 U.S. LNG Imports
0.1 Total U.S. Supply
U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada
2.2 U.S. Exports to Mexico
3.8 U.S. LNG Exports
1.1 U.S. Commercial
4.8 U.S. Residential
3.8 U.S. Power Plant
29.9 U.S. Industrial
20.2 U.S. Plant Fuel
4.6 U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.0 U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1 Total U.S. Consumption
65.4 Total U.S. Demand
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Current
Prior
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Current
Prior
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
21.25
22.25
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
32.48
29.50
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
170.00
146.75
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
21.88
30.19
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
26.50
26.75
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
58.50
58.50