Nov 14 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Thursday on forecasts for heating demand to rise during the last week of November when the weather turns cold again after temperatures moderate next week.
That price move came ahead of a federal report expected to show no build in storage last week when extreme cold boosted heating demand across much of the country. Usually at this time of year, utilities are still adding to stockpiles.
Analysts said utilities likely did not add or remove any gas from storage during the week ended Nov. 8. That compares with an injection of 42 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2014-18) average build of 30 bcf for the period. EIA/GAS
If correct, stockpiles will remain at 3.729 trillion cubic feet (tcf), close to the five-year average of 3.730 tcf for this time of year. That would erase the small storage surplus over normal levels built up over the prior four weeks.
Earlier this year, in March, the amount of gas in inventory was as much as 33% below the five-year average. But record production allowed utilities to inject 2.569 tcf of gas into storage since April 1, turning the deficit into a surplus during the week ended Oct. 11. That was the second biggest amount of gas added during the April-October storage injection season, following 2014's record 2.727 tcf increase, according to federal data.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 5.3 cents, or 2.0%, to $2.653 per million British thermal units at 8:22 a.m. EST (1322 GMT).
The U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) forecast temperatures in the Lower 48 U.S. states would shift from the current colder-than-normal over the eastern half of the country to near-normal to warmer-than-normal over much of the country during the next 6-14 days.
With the weather expected to moderate during the week of Nov. 17, data provider Refinitiv projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall to 112.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) next week from 117.3 bcfd this week.
Those demand forecasts were similar to Refinitiv's predictions on Wednesday of 112.8 bcfd for next week and 117.1 bcfd for this week. During the last week of November - the week of Nov. 24 - demand is expected to rise again as the weather turns colder.
Gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants held at 7.0 bcfd for a third day in a row on Wednesday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an average of 7.1 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 7.7 bcfd on Nov. 2.
Pipeline flows to Mexico rose to 5.8 bcfd on Wednesday from 5.6 bcfd on Tuesday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an average of 5.4 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 6.2 bcfd on Sept. 18.
Gas production in the Lower 48 rose to 94.9 bcfd on Wednesday from 94.5 bcfd on Tuesday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an average of 94.7 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 95.2 bcfd on Nov. 2.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Nov. 8
average
8(Forecast) 1(Actual)
Nov. 8
U.S. natgas storage (bcf):
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day Prior Day
Prior
10-Year
30-Year
Norm U.S. GFS HDDs
301 U.S. GFS CDDs
8 U.S. GFS TDDs
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current
Next Week This week Five-Yea
last year
Average
Month U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
76.3 U.S. Imports from Canada
7.9 U.S. LNG Imports
0.2 Total U.S. Supply
102.1
102.7
102.6
U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada
2.4 U.S. Exports to Mexico
3.7 U.S. LNG Exports
1.5 U.S. Commercial
10.9 U.S. Residential
16.0 U.S. Power Plant
22.5 U.S. Industrial
22.8 U.S. Plant Fuel
4.7 U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.1 U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1 Total U.S. Consumption
101.8
79.1 Total U.S. Demand
102.0
117.3
112.8
111.8
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Current Day Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
51.00
60.00
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
42.92
56.07
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
30.75
51.00
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
33.50
34.69
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
29.75
41.25
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
43.00
43.50