Oct 15 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up on Tuesday as the market focused more on forecasts for cold weather and higher heating demand in late October than warmer weather and lower heating use over the next two weeks.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 1.9 cents, or 0.8%, to $2.299 per million British thermal units at 9:25 a.m. EDT (1325 GMT).
Recent price swings in gas futures pushed at-the-money implied volatility NGATMIV , a determinant of option premiums, to 50.1% on Friday, its highest since January. Over the past year, implied volatility has swung wildly, hitting a record high of 117.5% in November and a record low of 18.6% in April.
Over the next 6-10 days, the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) forecast temperatures in the Lower 48 U.S. states would be warmer than usual east of the Mississippi River and cooler than normal over the Rocky Mountains. That cold will shift to the middle of the country over the 8-14 day period, with warmer temperatures concentrated on the East and West Coasts, the NWS said.
Refinitiv projected gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would reach 85.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week as moderate weather reduces heating use, down from its previous forecast for the week of 86.5 bcfd on Monday.
For next week, Refinitiv projected demand would only reach 85.1 bcfd, which is down from its previous forecast on Monday of 85.9 bcfd as some warm weather lingers at the start of the week.
Gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants rose from 6.7 bcfd on Sunday to a record 7.0 bcfd on Monday after Dominion Energy Inc's D.N Cove Point terminal in Maryland returned to service. That compares with an average of 6.4 bcfd last week. traders noted the Gemmata LNG vessel docked at Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI) Inc's KMI.N Elba Island LNG export facility in Georgia. The vessel arrived near full of LNG likely from Trinidad, its prior stop, according to data from Refinitiv. The first liquefaction train at Elba terminal entered service on Oct. 4. traders said the Gemmata could still pick up some LNG from Elba. Officials at Kinder Morgan said the vessel was docked at the facility. Officials at Royal Dutch Shell Plc RDSa.L , which has agreed to buy all the LNG from Elba, would not comment on what Gemmata was doing at the facility.
Pipeline flows to Mexico rose to 5.3 bcfd on Monday from 5.1 bcfd on Sunday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an average of 5.5 last week and an all-time daily high of 5.9 bcfd on Sept. 18.
Analysts forecast utilities added 103 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Oct. 11. That compares with an injection of 82 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2014-18) average build of 81 bcf for the period.
If correct, the increase would boost stockpiles to 3.518 trillion cubic feet (tcf), topping the five-year average of 3.505 tcf for the first time since September 2017.
The amount of gas in inventory was as much as 33% below the five-year average in March 2019. But with production close to a record high, analysts said stockpiles should end the summer injection season at near normal levels of around 3.7 tcf on Oct. 31. NGAS/POLL
Gas production in the Lower 48 states rose to 93.7 bcfd on Monday from 93.5 bcfd on Sunday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an average of 93.1 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 93.8 bcfd on Sept. 29.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Oct 11
Oct 4
Oct 11
average
(Forecast) (Actual)
Oct 11
U.S. natgas storage (bcf):
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current
Prior Day
Prior
10-Year
30-Year
Norm U.S. GFS HDDs
151 U.S. GFS CDDs
32 U.S. GFS TDDs
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current
Next Week This week Five-Yea
last year
Average
Month U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
75.5 U.S. Imports from Canada
7.6 U.S. LNG Imports
0.2 Total U.S. Supply
100.0
100.2
U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada
2.4 U.S. Exports to Mexico
3.7 U.S. LNG Exports
1.2 U.S. Commercial
6.6 U.S. Residential
6.8 U.S. Power Plant
25.2 U.S. Industrial
20.5 U.S. Plant Fuel
4.6 U.S. Pipe Distribution
1.9 U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1 Total U.S. Consumption
65.7 Total U.S. Demand
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Current
Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Current
Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
21.50
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
16.25
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
18.00
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
37.00
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
40.25
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
40.00