Oct 1 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped to one-month low on Tuesday, weighed down by record production and forecasts for the weather to moderate over the next two weeks.
Gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 3.5 cents, or 1.5%, to $2.295 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) by 09:57 a.m. EDT (1357 GMT) after touching their lowest since Sept. 3 at $2.282. That put the front-month on track for an 11th straight session of falls.
Gas output in the Lower 48 states has averaged a near record high of 92.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in the past 30 days. On a daily basis, production scaled an all-time high of 93.8 bcfd on Sunday, according to Refinitiv data.
"People are still rattled from last week's larger-than-market-expectation storage injection and that is translating into continued selling," said Robert DiDona of Energy Ventures Analysis.
A more seasonal weather pattern is expected and production gains are weighing on the market, he added.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 102 bcf of gas to storage during the week ended Sept. 20 verses 89-bcf build that analysts forecast in a Reuters poll. EIA/GAS
Meanwhile, analysts said utilities likely added 105 bcf of gas to storage during the week ended Sept. 27. That compares with an injection of 91 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2014-18) average build of 83 bcf for the period.
The amount of gas in inventory has remained below the five-year average since September 2017. It fell as much as 33% below that in March 2019. But with production hitting record highs, analysts said stockpiles should reach a near-normal 3.7 tcf by the end of summer injection season on Oct. 31. NGAS/POLL
"The weather factor has subsided considerably as a source of support while latest EIA storage has reinforced our prior view that cooling degree days accumulation at this time of the year can be quite modest even when the weather forecasts are favoring much above normal temperatures," Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates, said in a note.
Despite the mostly warmer weather, temperatures are still easing with the coming of autumn. Data provider Refinitiv projected gas demand in the lower 48 U.S. states would fall to an average of 82.5 bcfd next week from an average around 85.1 bcfd forecast this week.
Those demand forecasts include exports, which analysts said would likely rise as more gas flows to LNG export plants and pipelines to Mexico.
Week ended
Year ago Five-year
Sept.
ended
Sept. 27
average
27(Forecas Sept. 20
Sept. 27
(Actual)
U.S. natgas storage (bcf):
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current
Prior
Prior
10-Year
30-Year
Norm U.S. GFS HDDs
98 U.S. GFS CDDs
54 U.S. GFS TDDs
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Next Week This week Five-Yea
last year
Average
Month U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
75.2 U.S. Imports from Canada
7.7 U.S. LNG Imports
0.1 Total U.S. Supply
100.1
100.6
U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada
2.2 U.S. Exports to Mexico
3.8 U.S. LNG Exports
1.1 U.S. Commercial
4.8 U.S. Residential
3.8 U.S. Power Plant
29.9 U.S. Industrial
20.2 U.S. Plant Fuel
4.6 U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.0 U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1 Total U.S. Consumption
65.4 Total U.S. Demand
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Current
Prior
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Current
Prior
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
24.00
19.25
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
41.00
39.06
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
29.33
26.25
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
36.78
31.64
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
29.00
24.50
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
32.00
25.25