Sept 20 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures traded within a few cents of unchanged on Friday as demand forecasts stayed pretty steady from the prior day.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 0.6 cents, or 0.2%, to $2.544 per million British thermal units at 10:06 a.m. EDT (1406 GMT).
That followed a drop of almost 4% on Thursday, its biggest daily percentage decline since mid July, due to a bigger than expected storage build and reduced forecasts for cooling demand next week. the week, the contract was down over 2%, putting the front-month on track to decline for the first week in four.
Even though the weather is expected to remain warmer than normal through early October, traders noted that warmth in late September or early October is a lot cooler than in the middle of the summer. Analysts said persistent mild weather could reduce gas demand because homes and businesses will not need to use air conditioning or heat.
As the weather cools with the coming of autumn, data provider Refinitiv projected average gas demand in the lower 48 U.S. states will drop from 85.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) to 82.0 bcfd next week.
In two week, however, Refinitiv forecast demand would rise to 83.3 bcfd as exports rise.
Gas flows to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants fell to 5.8 bcfd on Friday due to the shutdown of Dominion Energy Inc's D.N Cove Point in Maryland, down from an average of 6.5 bcfd earlier this week, according to Refinitiv data. projected flows to LNG terminals could rise to around 6.6 bcfd in a couple weeks.
Exports to Mexico, meanwhile, jumped to a record high of 5.6 bcfd this week as gas started to flow through the 2.6-bcfd Valley Crossing and Sur de Texas-Tuxpan pipes after TC Energy Corp TRP.TO and Sempra's IENOVA unit resolved pipeline contract disputes with Mexico's Federal Electricity Commision in late August. said utilities likely added 86 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Sept. 20. That compares with an injection of 51 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2014-18) average build of 74 bcf for the period. EIA/GAS
If correct, the increase would boost stockpiles to 3.189 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 1.9% below the five-year average of 3.252 tcf for this time of year.
The amount of gas in inventory has remained below the five-year average since September 2017. It fell as much as 33% below that average in March 2019. But with production near a record high, analysts said, stockpiles should reach a near-normal 3.7 tcf by the end of the summer injection season on Oct. 31. NGAS/POLL
Gas production in the lower 48 states edged up to 92.2 bcfd on Thursday from 91.5 bcfd on Wednesday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an all-time daily high of 93.0 bcfd on Aug. 19.
Week ended
Year ago Five-year
ended
Sep 20
average
20(Forecas Sep 13
Sep 20
(Actual)
U.S. natgas storage (bcf):
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current
Prior
Prior
10-Year
30-Year
Norm U.S. GFS HDDs
60 U.S. GFS CDDs
81 U.S. GFS TDDs
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Next Week This week Five-Yea
last year
Average
Month U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
75.2 U.S. Imports from Canada
7.7 U.S. LNG Imports
0.1 Total U.S. Supply
U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada
2.2 U.S. Exports to Mexico
3.8 U.S. LNG Exports
1.1 U.S. Commercial
4.8 U.S. Residential
3.8 U.S. Power Plant
29.9 U.S. Industrial
20.2 U.S. Plant Fuel
4.6 U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.0 U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1 Total U.S. Consumption
65.4 Total U.S. Demand
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Current
Prior
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Current
Prior
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
23.75
25.00
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
24.58
34.25
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
27.00
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
24.50
26.50
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
24.25
23.75
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
33.00
33.00