Nov 4 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures on Monday surged more than 4% to the highest in more than seven months on forecasts for colder-than-normal weather over the next two weeks.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 10.3 cents, or 3.7%, at $2.817 per million British thermal units as of 09:22 a.m. EDT (1422 GMT). The session high of $2.842 was their highest since March 20.
"This market is maintaining a strong upward trajectory and we are viewing an extremely cold autumn period as primary catalyst in this regard," Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois, said in a note.
Data provider Refinitiv projected 346 heating degree days (HDDs) in the Lower 48 U.S. states over the next two weeks. The normal is 245 HDDs for this time of year.
HDDs measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 Fahrenheit (18 Celsius) and are used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses.
With the weather turning colder with the coming of winter, Refinitiv projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 would rise from 100.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 116.1 bcfd next week.
Meanwhile, gas production in the Lower 48 held at 94.9 bcfd on Sunday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an average of 94.3 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 95.0 bcfd on Oct. 28.
"And with gas production growth beginning to slow in following on the heels of this year's virtually uninterrupted decline in the rig counts, record gas output is no longer the bearish market consideration that was once the case," Ritterbusch added. ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Nov. 1
average
1(Forecast) 25(Actual)
Nov. 1
U.S. natgas storage (bcf):
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day Prior Day
Prior
10-Year
30-Year
Norm U.S. GFS HDDs
245 U.S. GFS CDDs
13 U.S. GFS TDDs
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current
Next Week This week Five-Yea
last year
Average
Month U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
76.3 U.S. Imports from Canada
7.9 U.S. LNG Imports
0.2 Total U.S. Supply
100.8
101.8
102.1
U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada
2.4 U.S. Exports to Mexico
3.7 U.S. LNG Exports
1.5 U.S. Commercial
10.9 U.S. Residential
16.0 U.S. Power Plant
22.5 U.S. Industrial
22.8 U.S. Plant Fuel
4.7 U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.1 U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1 Total U.S. Consumption
100.4
79.1 Total U.S. Demand
100.8
116.1
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Current Day Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
22.25
24.75
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
31.59
32.86
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
30.00
42.75
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
35.75
51.31
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
26.00
64.00
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
30.75
42.00