Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Stocks were modestly lower, but there was a clear risk-off tone throughout the day as rates rose sharply, along with the dollar. The CDX high-yield credit spread index also moved higher. Despite the...

The case for international diversification from a US-investor perspective usually centers on how to carve up a global equities allocation. The global bond footprint, by contrast, tends to be an...

The market premium for the US 10-year yield over a “fair value” estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com continued to narrow in September. The smaller spread extends a downside trend in recent...

There are no absolutes in economic forecasting. Thinking otherwise eventually leads to trouble. Case in point: the recession warning triggered nearly two years ago by an inverted Treasury yield curve...

The 10yr-2yr yield curve has un-inverted; yet in the media? Crickets Slowly I toined [cue Brooklyn accent], step by step… The 10yr-2yr yield curve un-inverted last week, turning from inversion to...

The beginning of the end for the current run of peak yields looks set to start tomorrow (Wed., Sep. 18) as the Federal Reserve is expected to roll out its first interest rate cut. On the eve of...

The level of U.S. Treasury yields and the changing shape of the Treasury yield curve provide investors with critical feedback regarding the market’s expectations for economic growth, inflation, and...

Fixed income as an asset class is looking bullish as Fed Chairman Powell prepares to give a widely anticipated speech this Friday (Aug. 23). The central banker is expected to drop clues about the...

Primary Factors Influencing Treasury Yield Reduction The recent substantial reduction in U.S. Treasury yields can be traced back to several elements. Firstly, indications of subsiding inflation have...

Year-to-date returns for US fixed income are skewing positive this year ahead of the Federal Reserve policy announcement this afternoon. Although the central bank is expected to leave rates unchanged...

Eurozone data continues to challenge the European Central Bank, with German economic contraction and sticky CPI complicating matters. Meanwhile, the Germany 10-Year-United States 10-Year spread has...

The spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield vs. a ‘fair value’ estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com narrowed to a three-month low in June. The market-based yield is still well above this...

A month ago it was reasonable to wonder if the worst was over for fixed-income securities writ large. Four weeks later, Treasury prices are slightly higher, but the debate continues as investors...

European yields for 10-year bonds saw a notable rise in June but relief arrived in the first week of July. They slightly declined throughout the week except for the 10-year German Bund whose yield...