Bonds Analysis & Opinion

By Padhraic GarveyThe Fed and the European Central Bank are on holding patterns. Tuesday saw the data vacuum allow yields to drift lower after two days of dramatic rises. Holding patterns can be...

We’ve been here before. In the spring of 2023, the bond market rallied sharply, effectively forecasting a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.But the punt turned to tears as the Federal Reserve...

As expected, the Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged Wednesday. Jerome Powell quashed rumours that the US central bank would lower rates in March, adding that it would likely...

The Federal Reserve has paused its interest rate hikes and inflation data seems to be leveling off. We’ll see.All in all, bond yields (interest rates) are pulling back and investors are hopeful...

By Padhraic GarveyUS Treasury yields were tracking the probability for a March cut, but now tracking the regional bank performance. Eurozone inflation surprised to the upside, but markets keep their...

Reference Inflationary Yield Curve Steepening? from January 11.In my opinion, after the secondary extreme inversion of the 10-2 yield curve in July a new yield curve steepener was in the bag. That is...

By Benjamin SchroederA large sense of anticipation ahead of data dominates thinking, but so too do technical issues like the ongoing unwind of the March rate cut in the US and the rebuild of the...

By Benjamin SchroederMarkets continue to discount early rate cuts, but central banks are pushing back against premature cuts and stressing the data-dependent approach. Long-end rates continue to drift...

While it is far from the only important indicator for the markets, the 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread is very important because it takes what is probably the most important market for macro...

The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to fall, which is narrowing the gap between the higher market rate and a lesser “fair-value” estimate, based on the average of three models run by...

By Benjamin Schroeder10Y Bunds got pushed back to 2.2% but still struggled to move past that hurdle despite a heavy supply slate. The same goes for the 10Y UST at 4% ahead of tomorrow’s...

Just as interest rates are pulling back, one particular government rate appears to be nearing an important moment.The 10-Year Germany Bond yield. Above is a long-term “monthly” chart of...

Several risk-on indicators surged higher into year-end, such as small-cap stocks and junk bonds.And as we typically see, this coincided with a big year-end stock market rally. Today, we take a look at...

U.S. Treasuries ended the year roughly at the same place they began, concealing some wild moves for the 10-year benchmark in 2023. Its yield remained virtually unchanged year-over-year, at 3.88%. Yet...