- U.S. contracts hover at near flat levels, as Europe declines after Asia trades mixed
- Yields jump but remain mired by technicals
- Dollar on verge of reversal
Key Events
On the penultimate trading day of 2019, U.S. futures contracts for the Dow Jones and NASDAQ are marginally lower, while after Friday's uninspired session, contracts on the S&P 500 experienced a revival earlier this morning. However, they've since reversed, even as European shares slipped following a mixed Asian session.
The dollar slumped for a third day, setting up for a downtrend.
Global Financial Affairs
Technology stocks pressured the STOXX Europe 600 Index to a lower open.
Changes to regulations in China, making it easier for new firms to go public, pushed the country’s brokerage shares higher. CITIC Securities (SS:600030) and Huatai Securities (SS:601688) surged.
China’s blue chip stocks hit an eight-month high. As well, in November, China’s industrial firms expanded the most in eight months, following a U.S.-China trade truce. The Shanghai Composite added 1.16%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng also climbed (+0.4%). However, Japan's Nikkei 225 (-0.76%), Australia’s ASX 200 (-0.25%) and South Korea’s KOSPI (-0.3%) all declined.
On Friday, technology shares jumped, pushing the NASDAQ higher, after the index crossed the 9,000 threshold for the first time on Thursday. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average also carved out higher records.
Yields, including for the U.S. 10-year Treasury, jumped back above the 200 DMA. Rates have been struggling between the long-term downtrend since the November 2018 high and the short-term uptrend, since the Sept. 3 bottom.
The dollar decline has extended for a third day, taking the price below the bottom of a rising channel since August, as it develops a falling channel since the October high.
The 50 DMA rested right atop the 200 DMA, as if waiting for additional clues on whether to trigger the much dreaded death cross or instead pull a mischievous stunt and bounce off the larger MA, which would be a bullish move. The bearish trigger would occur if the Dollar Index falls below the Dec. 12 low, signaling a downward reversal is more likely.
Alternatively, the bullish bounce would take place with a rebound for the price, back above the bottom of the rising channel.
Gold added to its rally, pausing at the $1,500 levels, a resistance since September, as the asset waits to see what its counter-asset, the dollar, does next.
Bitcoin has been climbing for the past three weeks. However, it's now hit a strong resistance, a broken support since May. Also, the cryptocurrency has been descending within a clearly defined falling channel since the June top.
The price is sandwiched between the 50- and 100-week moving averages.
Up Ahead
- China’s official manufacturing PMI is due on Tuesday; the Caixin version is released on Thursday.
- U.S. fixed-income markets close early Tuesday, at 2 p.m. EST for New Year's Eve.
- Most global markets will be closed on Wednesday, Jan. 1, for the New Year holiday.
- The Federal Open Market Committee Minutes will be released on Friday.
- U.S. ISM manufacturing is also due out on Friday. The Institute for Supply Management’s PMI is forecast to show a contraction for the fifth straight month.
Market Moves
Stocks
- The Stoxx Europe 600 Index sank 0.4%.
- Futures on the S&P 500 increased 0.03%.
- The Shanghai Composite Index surged 1.16%.
- The MSCI Asia Pacific Index decreased 0.1%.
Currencies
- The Dollar Index declined 0.07%.
- The British pound increased 0.36%.
- The euro climbed 0.17% to $1.1195.
- The Japanese jumped 0.3% to 109.16 per dollar.
- The South Korean won jumped 0.4% to 1,156.18 per dollar.
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed one basis point to 1.89%.
- Germany’s 10-year yield jumped three basis points to -0.23%.
- Britain’s 10-year yield increased two basis points to 0.773%.
- France’s 10-year yield climbed three basis points to 0.079%.
Commodities
- West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed at $61.92 a barrel.
- Gold increased 0.2% to $1,513.61 an ounce.
- Iron ore was little changed at $90.10 per metric ton.
- Soybean Futures rose 0.5% to $9.46 a bushel.