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5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar This Week

Published 2016-08-14, 03:47 a/m
© Reuters.  5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar In The Week Ahead

Investing.com - In the week ahead, market players will be turning their attention to Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July policy meeting for fresh clues on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike.

U.S. inflation data will also be in focus, as investors attempt to gauge if the world's largest economy is strong enough to withstand an increase in borrowing costs in the coming months.

Meanwhile, preliminary data on Japanese second quarter growth will also be in focus, amid concerns over recent yen strength and its implication on economic growth prospects.

Elsewhere, in the U.K., market participants will be looking ahead to reports on employment, consumer prices and retail sales for further indications on the continued effect that the Brexit decision is having on the economy.

Investors will also be eyeing a report on German business confidence for fresh signals on the health of the euro zone's biggest economy in wake of Britain's vote to exit the European Union earlier in the summer.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of the five biggest events on the economic calendar that are most likely to affect the markets.

1. Fed FOMC Meeting Minutes

The Federal Reserve will release minutes of the July policy meeting on Wednesday at 18:00GMT, or 2:00PM ET, as investors search for some clarity on where the U.S. central bank stands on its path toward rate hikes.

The Fed kept interest rates unchanged following its meeting on July 27 and said near-term risks to the U.S. economic outlook had diminished. However, the central bank stopped short of signaling a near-term rate rise.

Fed funds futures are currently pricing in a 9% chance of a rate hike by September. December odds were at around 45%.

2. U.S. inflation data for June

The Commerce Department will publish July inflation figures at 12:30GMT, or 8:30AM ET, Tuesday. Market analysts expect consumer prices to ease up 0.1%, while core inflation is forecast to increase 0.2%.

On a yearly base, core CPI is projected to climb 2.3%. Core prices are viewed by the Federal Reserve as a better gauge of longer-term inflationary pressure because they exclude the volatile food and energy categories. The central bank usually tries to aim for 2% core inflation or less.

Rising inflation would be a catalyst to push the Fed toward raising interest rates.

3. Japan second quarter preliminary GDP

Japan will publish preliminary second quarter economic growth data at 23:50GMT, or 7:50PM ET, on Sunday. The report is expected to reveal that Japan's economy expanded by just 0.2% in the April-June period, maintaining pressure on policymakers to support the world's third largest economy.

4. U.K. CPI, employment & retail sales data

The U.K. Office for National Statistics will release data on consumer price inflation for July at 08:30GMT, or 4:30AM ET, on Tuesday. Analysts expect consumer prices to rise 0.5%, after increasing 0.5% a month earlier.

At 08:30GMT, or 4:30AM ET, Wednesday, the ONS will publish the July jobs report. The claimant count change is expected to rise by 10,000, with the jobless rate holding steady at 4.9%. Wage growth including bonuses is forecast to rise 2.4%.

On Thursday, the ONS will produce a report on July retail sales at 08:30GMT, or 4:30AM ET, with analysts expecting an increase of 0.4%, following a drop of 0.9% in the preceding month.

The Bank of England cut interest rates to a record-low and launched fresh easing measures earlier this month in a bid to buffer the economy from a downturn following the Brexit vote.

Economic activity in the U.K. is expected to slow down sharply in the second half of the year as businesses face uncertainty over the country’s future direction in wake of the U.K.'s vote to exit the European Union.

5. German ZEW business survey

The ZEW Institute will publish its August German business climate index at 09:00GMT, or 5:00AM ET, on Tuesday, amid expectations for a rebound to 2.0 from July's reading of -6.8. The current conditions index is forecast to inch up to 50.0 from 49.8.

Stay up-to-date on all of this week's economic events by visiting: http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

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