By Roberta Rampton and David Ljunggren
WASHINGTON/OTTAWA, June 27 (Reuters) - President Barack
Obama will meet with leaders of Canada and Mexico on Wednesday
for his final "Three Amigos" summit, a meeting that may signal
how keen the North American partners are to tout trade at a time
of rising protectionist sentiment.
The Ottawa summit comes on the heels of Britain voting to
leave the European Union after more than 40 years. It also falls
ahead of a U.S. presidential election on Nov. 8 where
presumptive Republican candidate Donald Trump has made stagnant
wages and U.S. manufacturing job losses focal points of his
insurgent campaign.
The Brexit vote is bound to be an important theme for
Obama's meetings with Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto and
Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Canada had negotiated a trade deal with the EU that is
slated to take effect next year. The Brexit could delay
ratification, and hurt Canada's commodity-driven economy.
The referendum results are also a setback to talks on a
U.S.-EU trade deal. Mexico, which has a trade deal with the EU,
has already prepared a draft proposal for one with the United
Kingdom.
At the summit, leaders will also look at how best to foster
trade with each other, said Mexico's Finance Minister Luis
Videgaray.
"One of the important issues, without doubt, is how to give
a fresh impulse and greater value to North American
integration," Videgaray said.
All three are part of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the
12-nation trade deal that Obama had cast as an update of the
North American Free Trade Agreement. He wants to finalize the
TPP as part of his economic legacy in Asia.
The TPP has become a target of both the left and the right
in the U.S. election, and Congress has been unenthusiastic about
ratifying it thus far.
LAST CHANCE WITH OBAMA
The United States is the top export market for both Canada
and Mexico. In 2015, U.S. trade with Canada totaled $663 billion
and Mexico $584 billion.
But even in Canada, only one in four people say the
22-year-old NAFTA deal is good for the country, a poll released
on Monday found.
The long-running Canada-U.S. battle over softwood lumber
seems more likely than not to resume as early as October.
Given all the controversy over trade, the leaders may decide
to try to focus their summit talking points on other topics.
"I expect them to try and stay away from it," said Carlo
Dade, director of the Canada West Foundation's Center for Trade
and Investment Policy.
For Trudeau and Pena Nieto, the summit is one last chance to
make progress on lingering agenda items before Obama leaves the
White House next January.
The leaders are expected to discuss climate change and clean
energy cooperation, areas of mutual interest and themes that may
be central in Obama's address to the Canadian Parliament later
on Wednesday.
The three nations also plan to unveil a plan to fight heroin
production. QUESTION INEVITABLE
At a joint press conference, the leaders are likely to field
questions about the upcoming U.S. election and its implications
for both Canada and Mexico.
It will also be Obama's first chance on an international
stage to promote his recent endorsement of Democratic candidate
Hillary Clinton, his former secretary of state.
In March, Pena Nieto roundly condemned Trump, who has
promised to build a wall on the U.S. border with Mexico to keep
out illegal immigrants and drugs, and has complained about what
he calls unfair trade. Mexico also named a new ambassador to
aggressively promote its contributions to the U.S. economy.
So far, Trump has been mostly silent on Canada. "That
doesn't mean Canadians don't feel the sting" of his
protectionist ideas, said Chris Sands, director of the Center
for Canadian Studies at Johns Hopkins University's School of
Advanced International Studies.
Trudeau is likely to tread carefully so as to not endanger
relations with a potential president.
"It's unlikely there will be any formal discussion of Trump,
who of course is the elephant in the room. In some ways it's
better if there isn't," said one official involved in the
summit.
"The message the leaders will be sending is eloquent enough
- the three nations are closely integrated and cooperate well
and that's how the relationship should work," the official said,
speaking on condition of anonymity.
On trade, Pena Nieto and Trudeau are also cognizant that
talk is cheap on the campaign trail.
"I have to tell my Canadian friends this often - it doesn't
mean it will be the agenda once you get to the White House,"
said David Wilkins, the U.S. ambassador to Canada from 2005 to
2009 during the George W. Bush administration.
Obama provides a good case in point. In his 2008 campaign,
he demonized NAFTA, but once in office he began working on the
TPP, a deal he has said would fix his concerns about NAFTA.
"There's very much a 'Keep calm and carry on' approach and
we're going to ignore some of the domestic politicking and see
what happens when it happens," said a Canadian source familiar
with the summit talks.