Canada's ruling Conservatives play defense as Liberals hold lead

By Rod Nickel
FREDERICTON, New Brunswick, Oct 18 (Reuters) - Canada's
ruling Conservatives, trailing the opposition Liberals ahead of
Monday's election, spent the last few campaign days mostly on
the defensive, shoring up support in electoral districts they
won four years ago.
Polls released on Sunday showed Prime Minister Stephen
Harper's party has an uphill battle, trailing Justin Trudeau's
Liberals by almost seven points.
While Harper and officials on his campaign plane say they
are confident of victory, other Conservatives familiar with the
campaign concede defeat is quite possible, even as they put on a
brave face.
"I am proud of our record. We changed the political
discourse so much there's no going back," said one well-placed
party member, referring to Harper's success in cutting taxes,
boosting the military's role and pushing for tougher punishments
for criminals.
Harper planned to rally in Conservative strongholds on
Sunday, with stops in Saskatchewan and British Columbia. On
Saturday, in what some observers called a desperate move, he
attended a Toronto rally organized in part by the city's former
crack-smoking mayor, Rob Ford.
Conservatives downplayed the choice of safe Tory territory
for Harper's final campaigning, noting that media carry his
messages widely across Canada.
They were also skeptical of national popularity polls, which
they say don't take into account district-by-district support
that translates more directly into election-night wins.
But Harper may need the backing of what one Conservative
called "10-second Conservatives" - those who side emotionally
with opposition candidates during the campaign, only to mark
their ballots for the governing party at the last moment.
If he wins, Harper would be the first Canadian prime
minister since 1908 to triumph in four consecutive elections, a
milestone that demonstrates how hard it is for politicians to
counter calls for change after an incumbent is in office for
nearly a decade.
Harper has made surprisingly few adjustments to the party's
campaign focus - himself. At recent rallies, Conservative
ministers make rock-star-style introductions of the prime
minister, then settle into the background and shoo away
inquisitive reporters.
Even as the campaign deliberately focused on Harper, some
Conservatives who are closely involved worry the party may lose
if other parties frame the election around voters' personal
feelings about Harper, who is a polarizing figure.
A former Harper adviser said the campaign did not reach out
enough to swing voters, instead choosing a narrow platform of
tax cuts and security designed to please the party faithful.
"The problem with our strategy is that we've walked away
from anyone who wasn't a hard-core Conservative," he said,
declining to be identified because he did not want to be seen
criticizing the prime minister.