Canadian PM's low-energy campaign didn't see depth of voter anger

By Rod Nickel and David Ljunggren
CALGARY/OTTAWA, Oct 20 (Reuters) - When outgoing Canadian
Prime Minister Stephen Harper launched the longest Canadian
election campaign in more than a century in August, he announced
"this isn't a popularity contest."
Unfortunately for Harper, who lost Monday's election to the
opposition Liberals, it was just that. The 78-day marathon
allowed voters to decide they no longer liked the ruling
Conservatives and ditched them after almost a decade in power.
An emailed statement from the Conservatives said Harper
resigned as party leader after the defeat, though he did not
mention stepping down in his concession speech.
"It's a bad night for the Conservative party, but we'll come
back. I think where we went wrong was on tone," said outgoing
Defence Minister Jason Kenney, long touted as a potential
replacement for Harper. "As for leadership speculation, that's
all for another day."
Insiders said the party ran an unimaginative low-energy
campaign that failed to recognize how fed up people were with
Harper. They also badly underestimated Liberal leader Justin
Trudeau. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N12I0LF
The 56-year-old economist was a divisive figure who
dominated his government, a man adored by those who liked what
they saw as his principled, uncompromising style and detested by
opponents who decried his dictatorial style.
He ran on a platform of tax cuts, stressing his record on
the economy as well as the need to boost security. He also made
sure he was the only public face of the campaign.
"It's hard to run on your record and promise change at the
same time," said one veteran legislator. "If you propose new
initiatives, people will ask 'Why didn't you do that earlier?'"
The Conservative effort was hurt when three key Harper
lieutenants, including the foreign minister, unexpectedly quit
in the run-up to the elections, depriving the party of vital
expertise.
Despite the defections, the Conservative war room was
confident the party could benefit from Trudeau's supposed
weaknesses, running ads saying he was "just not ready."
Ahead of the first televised debate, campaign spokesman Kory
Teneycke said that if Trudeau "comes on stage with his pants on,
he will probably exceed expectations." Trudeau ended up
performing well in the debate.
"(Teneycke's) remarks were stupid," said one war room
operative. "He'd love to take them back if he could."
The longer the campaign ran, the more voters saw Harper on
television every day. Conservatives knocking on doors started to
hear increasingly vociferous complaints about the prime
minister, even from long-term supporters.
"He has made the government all about him ... and right to
the bitter end the election was a referendum on him. That was a
flawed strategy," said a former senior Conservative who has
worked with Harper.
The Conservatives abruptly began running ads with the
message that while "Harper's not perfect" he remained the best
man to run the economy. The sudden confession that a man who
never admitted to making mistakes was flawed only underlined the
unfocused nature of the campaign.
Harper was accused of inciting Islamophobia with the
government's attempt to ban Muslim women to remove their face
veils in citizenship ceremonies.
The policy proved very popular in the province of Quebec,
the main power base for the New Democrats, who alienated their
own supporters by saying Harper was wrong. As the NDP slumped,
it meant an end to vote-splitting as NDP voters migrated to the
Liberals.
"It's very clear tonight what happened, the NDP vote
collapsed and handed the Liberals a majority," said Guy Giorno,
Conservative campaign chair at a somber Conservative gathering
in Calgary.
"The other thing is we were seeking to help Mr. Harper do
something historic -- nobody in more than 100 years has won four
in a row. We knew it was a monumental challenge and we just
couldn't buck history."
Harper changed tactics again, appearing at events with a
giant noisy cash register and supporters peeling off wads of
money to show how much they would lose under the Liberals.
He also appeared in a new television ad, telling voters the
election "is not about me." And on the final weekend, Harper
attended a rally in Toronto hosted by controversial former Mayor
Rob Ford, who hit the headlines in 2013 for admitting he had
smoked crack cocaine while in office.
Harper made sure not to shake Ford's hand during the event,
but the ex-mayor later tweeted a picture of himself with a
smiling prime minister. The photo was then splashed across the
front page of the Toronto Star, Canada's largest circulation
newspaper.
"It turned a lot of Conservatives into potential Liberal
voters because they said 'It's just morally bankrupt to be
standing with that guy,'" said Ipsos pollster John Wright.