By Rod Nickel and Randall Palmer
CALGARY/MONTREAL, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Canadians look set for
political change on Monday as polls showed a strong prospect
that Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government
will be ousted, or reduced to a minority, amid a late surge by
Liberal rival Justin Trudeau.
The 11-week campaign was considered too close to call for
nearly two months, a virtual tie between the Conservatives,
Liberals and left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP).
But the emergence of Trudeau, the 43-year-old son of former
Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, as frontrunner in recent polls
has much of Canada's national media writing Harper's political
obituary after nine years in office.
Still, a potential three-way split in votes means it will be
hard for either the Conservatives or center-left Liberals to win
a majority of seats. A minority victory would likely presage
another election in less than two years.
The Conservatives also tend to surpass poll forecasts, in
part because of a strong get-out-the-vote machine. Harper
exceeded expectations by winning a majority in 2011 after two
minorities in 2006 and 2008.
The NDP, an early favorite to win, has faded to third place
but could play a major powerbroker role in a minority situation.
The NDP has said it would topple a Harper government at the
earliest opportunity but would likely cooperate with a Liberal
minority government, at least in part, to delay a costly new
election.
The election could be decided once polls close in Ontario
and Quebec, Canada's two largest provinces who hold a combined
199 seats of the 338-seat Parliament, at 9:30 p.m. ET (0130
GMT). A close election could make the Pacific province of
British Columbia the decider. Polls there close at 10 p.m. ET
(0200 GMT).
Political pundits began to speculate on the makeup of a
Trudeau government in the final weekend of the campaign while
pondering what caused the downfall of Harper, 56, who has been
criticized for his aloof personality but won credit for economic
management in a decade of global fiscal uncertainty.
"Either his Conservative Party will win a small plurality of
parliamentary seats in Monday's election, but then be defeated
in the House of Commons, or his party will win fewer seats than
the Liberals and hand over power," Globe and Mail columnist
Jeffrey Simpson wrote. "Either way, time will soon be up for the
Prime Minister."
If he wins, Trudeau has said he will run small deficits to
invest in infrastructure and boost Canada's economic growth,
which has been anemic for years. He has also promised to follow
a more multi-lateral approach on the global stage than did
Harper and repair Canada's relationship with the United States.
Harper's campaign has focused on himself, with Conservative
ministers making rock-star-style introductions of the prime
minister at rallies. If he wins, Harper would be the first
Canadian prime minister since 1908 to triumph in four
consecutive elections.